Real estate is a smaller part of American's income than ever before… and rent is an even smaller part

Yesterday, the New York Times reported that “Twenty Years Later, Buying a House Is Less of a Bite.” Two points on this:

1. It’s a macro-level article and points out that housing on the coasts is not necessarily a deal:

In high-profile places like New York and Los Angeles, home to many of the people who study and write about real estate, families buying their first home often must spend more than half of their income on mortgage payments, far more than they once did. But the places that have become less affordable over the last generation account for only a quarter of the country’s population.

2. They entirely ignore the fact that 20 years later, most things are cheaper. For instance: food, beer, wine, appliances, computers, telephone service, and so on. Some things, particularly services, have become more expensive, but the most important thing when you’re talking about the relative cost of houses, rent, is still cheap. An older article from the New York Times points this out:

In the Bay Area of California, a typical family that buys a $1 million house – which is average in some towns – will spend about $5,000 a month to live there, according to the Times analysis. The family could rent a similar house for about $2,500, real estate records show, and could pay part of that bill with the interest earned by the money that was not used for a down payment.

Seattle is not the Bay Area, but owning here is still much more expensive than owning in Dallas. I think this fits with anecdotes about buying rental properties. Twenty years ago, it was fairly easy to buy a rental property in the Seattle area and have the rent pay for repairs and the payments; you could earn equity for the cost of finding tenants. Today, the search to find a property like that is a challenge.

So will house prices plummet or flat-line this year? I don’t think anyone can say. A lot of people seem to be betting on increasing prices (they are still buying rental properties), however I believe that the stock market is beginning to bet against builders because they fear an over-supply of housing. My advice: If you have above 50/50 odds of staying in the same house for 10-20 years (unlike most Americans), you should definitely buy. If you can’t save money to save your life, maybe you should buy because your home could serve as a sort of inefficient savings scheme (again assuming you won’t sell right away). If you really value owning a home, buy one. Just don’t expect prices to continue increasing at the same rate as they have over the last 5 years. And don’t get an interest only loan!

-Galen
ShackPrices.com

Interview with Andy Kaufman of MyEastBayAgent

Andy KaufmanWhen the wave of new technologies crashes on the real estate industry, you can be certain that Andy Kaufman will be surfing it in with a smile on his face.

I’m extremely pleased that I get to conclude my series of interviews with the following responses from Andy Kaufman of MyEastBayAgent. I’ve only known Andy for a few months (and I’m yet to meet him in person), but between email, blogging, photo-sharing, and our Skype conversations, he’s become a good friend. He has an obvious passion for exploring the intersection of technology and real estate, and by being located in Berkeley, California, he seems to be near the heart of all things Web2.0.

What inspired you to start blogging?

I was at my good friend Nate Koechley’s holiday party last year and everybody kept talking about flickr & del.icio.us, so I asked him the deal was. He told me to sign up with Bloglines, Flickr & Del.icio.us, use them and then go from there.

I “got

Winding Down 2005, Answering My Own Interview Questions, and Ramping Up for 2006

dustin throwing sasha in yosemiteThe year 2005 is winding down and the next interview that I post will be my last post of a fantastic year as well as my last interview in (what I think has been) a great series of interviews. In addition to all the blogs that I’ve added to my blog reader, I’ve learned a ton from these interviews and I’ve filed away a bunch of ideas for future posts.

I have been requested a few different times in both comments and emails to post my own answers to my interview questions, but this seemed a little awkward. Instead I asked Andy Kaufman if he would be interested in interviewing me and conveniently, he asked the same 10 questions I asked all of my interviewees :). You can see my responses over at MyEastBayAgent .

In addition to being my last post of the year, I’ve also decided to take a few weeks off posting to give some much deserved attention to my wife, and soon enough, our newborn child. However, as I mentioned in an earlier post, Galen has offered to step up to the plate in my absence. If his first post is any indication of his future posting content and style, then I’ve definitely left Rain City Guide in some good hands!

I wish everyone a Wonderful New Years and many Exciting Adventures in 2006!

Interview with Manhattan's Property Grunt

Grunt“This is a blog by a soldier in the trenches of the Manhattan real estate war presenting information and commentary on the market.”

With his his anonymity firmly in hand, the Property Grunt is always good for some no-hold-barred real estate analysis. Reading his blog, I often wished I lived in New York where things seem so much more exciting. From the Grunt’s stories, it is obvious that this person is an experienced and successful agent. Some day the Grunt may be unmasked, but for now, I’m just happy he’s blogging!

What inspired you to start blogging?

First of all I enjoy writing and quickly realized there were many people who were just as clueless as I once was about real estate and I decided to pull the curtains back.

Are there any special topics or issues that you enjoy covering?

I enjoy looking at every aspect of real estate from mortgages to property management. The one thing I do emphasize in my blog is that whether you are buying for personal or for investment purposes you should exercise extreme caution. Real estate is sensitive to many outside forces and it is also illiquid. It is these aspects that get people into trouble.

What have you done to personalize your blog?

The only thing I have done to personalize it is my content. However I will be implementing other features to further personalize it.

Do you have any favorite posts?

I have had so many favorite entries but I have narrowed them down to four.

One of the things I dislike about this business is that the general public is unaware of the various nuances of my profession. This article clearly displayed that ignorance and I was more than happy to educate this writer.
http://propertygrunt.blogspot.com/2005/08/holy-grail-more-like-holy-st.html

This was an incident that actually happened to me on the 4th of July. It was so bizarre and so New York I had to write about it
http://propertygrunt.blogspot.com/2005/07/open-letter-to-whole-foods.html

I was beyond aggravated with this agent for what she did. She was very lucky that she was dealing with me. I knew other brokers who would drop her in a second. It is also indicative of the type of people that gravitate to this business.
http://propertygrunt.blogspot.com/2005/04/poachers-beware-i-will-beat-you-with.html

These were two incidents where I quickly learned that being an agent brings a ton of hazards.
http://propertygrunt.blogspot.com/2005/02/when-gun-misfires-disasters-that-occur.html

What are some of your favorite blogs (real estate or otherwise)?

I have a whole Torah of blogs and sites I enjoy. Anything that is on the Curbed links list which include Inman News, The Real Deal, The Walk Through, and The Matrix. The Realty Gram Blogger and Your Best Agent these are just some of the many other sites I check for news and developments in real estate. Opinionistas is a fantastic lawyer blog and Mimi in New York is another guilty pleasure. And of course a new favorite is the Rain City Guide.

What tools/websites do you find most helpful in putting together your blog?

Honestly, the only thing I have used is blogger. Parts of the design that I have customized is just code I have picked up. I do plan on utilizing dreamweaver and hunt for some javascript that would spruce up the place.

How does blogging fit into the overall marketing of your business?

At this point it doesn’t. I do not use my blog to generate sellers or buyers since I just interested in educating people the best I can. However I am examining other opportunities.

What plans do you have to improve your blog over this next year?

My objective next year is to update the GUI. More on that later.

What is the one tool or feature that you wish your site had?

There is actually a lot of tools I would like to have and I plan on implementing them in the near future.

What do you think real estate blogging will look like 3 years from now?

Everyone in real estate is going to have a blog which will be used primarily as a marketing tool. However there will be factions that will play the Matt Drudge card by kicking open the closets and airing out the dirty unmentionables. Expect a lot of firings and lawsuits in the future.

(Read more interviews with some of real estate’s top bloggers under the Real Estate Q&A category)

Interview with Tim O'Keefe of the Real Estate Marketing Blog

tim o'keefeI’m really glad that Tim O’Keefe agreed to the interview because he represents a different type of real estate blogger. He uses his Real Estate Marketing Blog to highlight the marketing services he provides to real estate agents. I really like that I can turn to his blog for interesting and opinionated posts on how to better market real estate blogs. Like all the real estate bloggers that I’ve interviewed, a lot can be learned from both his style and his content.

What inspired you to start blogging?

As a Search Engine Optimizing Company, I was blogging long before launching The Spider Juice Technologies Corporate blog-http://houseblogger.typepad.com. I tested, wondering if it was given any special priority by search engines. Contrary to what many believe, I found that they are not treated with any more special priority than a typical website.

However, the real difference was that blogs are not static like a typical website. They are usually focused. In fact, the more focused the better as far as positions go. I knew that search engines love content. The more content you offer the more chances that keyword phrases (intentional or otherwise) will get picked up and positioned. That was the hook. Easy publishing, because a blog is just a real simple and easy to operate Content Management System.

I found that that a blog still needs to adhere to the principles of the Search Engine Marketing Triangle. That is at the top of the Triangle, a page needs to have “on-page content” optimized. Most blog software does an OK job of “out of the box”, on-page optimization.

The bottom two angles are about Link Equity or inbound links. Because of RSS and Pinging, blogs can find natural and automatic links that are necessary for a web page to position highly. These links tend to offer much more natural structures into the blog page. I found the system to be beautiful as an additional tool for my clients. So about a year and half ago, I began to test on client sites, as well as launching my own blog .

Are there any special topics or issues that you enjoy covering?

I believe it essential to have an opinion on how to do a business. Otherwise, why hire you or me? The blog allows us to speak directly to our audience. It best be something useful and unique. In the beginning. I did what I find most newbie bloggers do. That is parrot back already over reported information about real estate. BOHHRING!

It became quickly apparent that if this thing was going to be worth anything to my business, that it had to be extremely useful for the reader. So my blog will rant and editorialize various topics to do with SEO, Pay per Click, lead generation/follow-up and anything about online marketing. I rarely will offer anything without giving an opinion. I do that because the blog is my chance to offer my personality on my business.

The typical searcher scans through webpages, looking for something useful. How do they know if it is important? You have to tell them either directly or indirectly. That engages your reader and gets them into you. Guess what? At that point there is a good chance that you just rose above all the other agents out there, and you have etched out a bit of their brain to remember you. Because, your opinion matters to them! This is what gets subscriptions, RSS reads, and of course more traffic.

Authors of articles, or books and publications are given a psychological Authority over their market. There isn’t a whole lot of money in writing books. But write a book and you will be given instant implied expertise. That psychology works with any kind of writing, including blogs.

Another way to say this is that I look at blogging as a way to position ourselves as thought leaders.

What have you done to personalize your blog?

When you have an opinion it is all about personalization. I don’t think personalization is accomplished by taking a picture of me with my family and my cats. It is offering an opinion that hopefully is valuable enough, and persuaded in a way such that the marketplace says we are viable.

I will weave stories from my personal life in order to make a point. I think I have mentioned my wife, kids and even the Youth Football team that I Coach. I don’t believe that I have brought my cats into a post though. LOL

Do you have any favorite posts?

The Bubble and MLS posts are definitely soap box issues for me. I also, have written about various market segments that I think are wide open for growth.

What are some of your favorite blogs (real estate or otherwise)?

Let me go down my RSS Reader- Albion and see- http://michelfortin.com, http://BoldApproach.com, http://sethgodin.typepad.com, http://seobook.com, anything political, and so on. I love reading intelligent and even conflicting opinions.

What tools/websites do you find most helpful in putting together your blog?

Typepad is simple. WordPress and Drupal, rock as far as functionality. I like them for different reasons/features.

How does blogging fit into the overall marketing of your business?

To read me is to know me. My work hopefully pre-frames my readers into knowing that we are experts. There are no surprises. The hardest thing in the world for a business to do is differentiate itself from the other “noise” in the industry. The blog allows you and me to make our expertise a foregone conclusion. Thus, we are able to shorten the sales process and get down to the nitty gritty of doing business quicker.

What plans do you have to improve your blog over this next year?

I will be adding Audio, Video and my blog will be an entry way into upcoming books, and Membership site for the do it your selfer agent.

What is the one tool or feature that you wish your site had?

none.

What do you think real estate blogging will look like 3 years from now?

More integrated into traditional website models.

(Read more interviews with some of real estate’s top bloggers under the Real Estate Q&A category)

Introduction, The CanterHole and other reasons you shouldn't live near a bar

Howdy folks, I’ll be guest blogging here for a while. Like Dustin said, I’m the co-creator of ShackPrices.com. I’m not much for introductions, so I’ll jump right in.

Since Washington’s smoking ban went into effect, I have been happily wearing my nice-ish clothes to bars and generally enjoying the dank, non-smoky smells of the bars near my house. I tell you this because if you live near a bar or are considering buying a place near one, you might soon be savoring the sweet smell (and noise) of smokers hanging out at the door. In densely populated Capitol Hill, the complaints have already begun, as supra-bar apartment dwellers have found that just enough air gets through the cracks in their windows for them to reconsider their hip living quarters. The Stranger reports:

Maybe a case can be made for the enforcement of the laughable 25-foot rule that comes with the smoking ban. Just ask those on the first floor of the apartment building above Canterbury Ale & Eats on 15th Avenue. On Friday night they felt like a chimney for the pack of smokers who gathered outside the bar’s entrance. The Seattle police told one apartment dweller that they weren’t enforcing the 25-foot rule but that the public health department was. Naturally, the health department said the police were enforcing it. Which is it? In practice, none of the above.

I will definitely keep this in mind when I next move. If it’s bad in the middle of December, imagine smoke sneaking into your sealed condo at 7 P.M. on a 90-degree summer day.

On a side note, I went to check out the “smoke-free” Canterbury last night (it wasn’t after 9:30) and met the “Rosa Parks of smoking.” I guess I have no idea what a hard life smokers live.

New Guest Blogger: Galen Ward

In the real near future, I’m going to be taking a break from blogging for a few weeks. However, I didn’t want the lights to go out on Rain City Guide while I’m taking a little break, so I’ve asked a friend of mine (who happens to run a great photoblog) to take over. He happens to be one of the two men behind ShackPrices, the creator of the Google map hack Los Taco Trucks, and an all-around fun guy. I fully expect his posts to be very entertaining.

By the way, I have a few more interviews queued up and ready to roll over the next few days, so keep checking back in for more of those…

Interview with David Smith of The Affordable Housing Institute

David SmithI’d be hard pressed to name someone covering real estate issues who has mastered the art of blogging better than David Smith of The Affordable Housing Institute. His posts are always 100% original, highly entertaining, filled with informative facts, and full of interesting opinions. I simply love that he takes on complex issues, adds a bunch of tangentially relevant graphics and treats his readers like they’re worthy of some intellectual stretching. Regardless of what day you choose to read his blog (he has a new post every day!), and regardless of what issues he’s covering (it might be the French Riots, Rebuilding New Orleans or Terrell Owens), you’ll be sure to be reading a post from someone who has spent years thinking about real estate and housing issues.

What inspired you to start blogging?

Even before blogs emerged as a technology, I’d done blog-like things: written numerous articles, spoken at seminars, established a personal Web site, written movie reviews that I sent to people who expressed interest. All these were blogs-before-blogs. But the blog’s ease and immediacy of posting, plus the unique ability to link to source material, made it an ideal forum for me.

Plus, several people who knew me urged me to. Nothing like peer pressure.

Are there any special topics or issues that you enjoy blogging?

Our business is complex, and I like reducing or dissolving barriers to entry of understanding. I also like illuminating political maneuvering, especially when newspapers are missing the real point.

Ricky, Lucy 'splaining things.
“Look, I’ll ‘splain.” “Okay, ‘splain.”

What have you done to personalize your blog?

People such as you have told me my style’s unusual. I title the posts because each is a small essay. I pepper in allusions, movie quotes, funny pictures and snarky captions. My text is Edgar Bergen, my visuals are Charlie McCarthy.

Bergen and McCarthy
“Oh, I’m supposed to believe the dummy writes your captions? “

Do you have any favorite posts?

I tag Essential Posts, and Primer Posts. I have a whole series of Sherlock Holmes on housing finance. Beyond that I have particular fondness for Eminent domain: the wrong fight, Slums are economically rational, Reselling Mystico Towers, Prescribing New New Orleans, L’horloge Orange (which got me linked by Instapundit), Tearing down the French high-rises, and GSEs: fierce competition. Fierce. These feel to me genuine advances in knowledge, besides being fun to read.

What are some of your favorite blogs (real estate or otherwise)?

Boston Sports Media is a work of genius that renders sports pages obsolete. Paul Phillips on poker does a great job expressing who he is. The Volokhs have perfected the group blog. Belmont Club adds real value by interpreting news. Pepys Diary is perhaps the apotheosis of hypertext value-added — not only the diary, one post a day, but also a panoply of user-generated wiki-type comments. Phil Gyford deserves a MacArthur.

What tools/ web sites do you find most helpful in putting together your blog?

I read the news on-line — mainly New York Times, Washington Post — and grab articles that are seeds for blog posts. Knowledgeplex is useful too.

How does blogging fit into the overall marketing of your business?

Demonstrates guru insights and reminds people I’m a guru.

What plans do you have to improve your blog over this next year?

I’d love to have more blogger-writers on the AHI site. Beyond me, we have two, whose pace has fallen off recently.

What is the one tool or feature that you wish your site had?

A time-compression algorithm so I could write more ☺.

What do you think real estate blogging will look like 3 years from now?

As a business, classical real estate brokerage is facing the kind of big-bang price drop that confronted stock brokers when Charles Schwab and others introduced first discount and then on-line brokerage. In real terms, fees are likely to drop, and the service is going to reinvent itself from seller representation to buyer advocacy. This is consistent with other internet-driven reversals, where high bandwidth means narrowcasting specialist content providers like blogs, and the scarce commodity is not the content to display but the eyeball to see it. Blogging is a means of building personal brand and hence distinguishing yourselves from the common broker.

In other words, you folks should keep getting with it!

Get Smart
“Got that, chief?”

(Read more interviews with some of real estate’s top bloggers under the Real Estate Q&A category)

Understanding Credit Score and Credit Repair

Credit remediation is a subject consumers often face with fear and trepidation, and for good reason. With the exception of recognizing that the best score wins, the average home shopper knows very little about the whole credit scoring process. Sub-prime borrowers who are eager to move into A-Paper territory often find themselves at a loss when trying to find ways to upgrade their credit history. The good news is there are ways to improve less-than-perfect credit scores and obtain a loan for the home you really want.

The first step in the process is making sure that you have a current copy of your credit report. Congress recently amended the Fair Credit Reporting Act so that consumers may now receive one free credit report annually. There are three major credit bureaus: Equifax, Experian, and Transunion. Since entries can vary across bureaus, you’ll want to request a free report from each of the three companies. (Go to www.annualcreditreport.com)


It’s also important to know just what a good credit score is. Most A-Paper scores generally begin around 680, although this number may differ slightly among lenders. Don’t despair if you come up shy, there is always room for improvement. Increasing your score just 5 points can save a significant amount of money. For example, if your score is 698 and you increase it to 703, then you could save yourself thousands of dollars over time as a result of a slight improvement to your loan’s interest rate.

While credit repair is necessary for some, it’s not the only way to increase your credit score. Even if you have stellar credit, you can enhance your score through these steps:

  • Evenly distribute your credit card debt to change the ratio of debt to available credit. Let’s say you have a credit score of 665. If you have debt on only one card, and four additional credit cards with zero balances, evenly distributing the debt of the first card could move you closer, and possibly into, that ideal bracket.
  • Keep your existing accounts open and active. The average consumer is usually anxious to close credit card accounts that have zero balances, but doing this can cause them to lose the benefits of a long-term credit history and increase their ratio of debt-to-available credit. The bottom line is don’t close those old accounts!
  • Keep credit inquiries to a minimum. Each inquiry into your credit history can impact your score anywhere from 2-50 points. When it comes to mortgage and auto loans, even though you’re only looking for one loan, multiple lenders may request your credit report. To compensate for this, the score counts multiple auto or mortgage inquiries in any 14-day period as just one inquiry, so try and stay within that time frame.

Remember, credit scores don’t change overnight. Improving them requires time and diligent effort on your part, so it’s a good idea to get the ball rolling at least three to six months prior to submitting your application for home financing.

If credit repair is what you need, you can either begin the process yourself or seek out a repair service. If you decide to make your own improvements, visit as many websites as possible to get information regarding credit laws and consumer rights. Diligently search through them and educate yourself to ensure that you don’t sustain any self-inflicted wounds. A good place to start would be the Federal Trade Commission’s website, which contains a wealth of helpful literature.

If you’re facing severe or complicated credit issues, then you’ll probably want to enlist the assistance of a professional credit repair company. Before you do, be sure to familiarize yourself with the FTC’s regulations on credit repair. With over 1100 credit repair companies to choose from, it’s important to be certain you are dealing with a reputable firm. Examine the FTC’s information on fraudulent practices to avoid falling prey to credit repair scams.

Addressing credit issues can be uncomfortable to say the least. But by taking these steps now, you’ll be that much closer to obtaining the home of your dreams.

Additional Resources:

To order your free credit report, go to:
www.annualcreditreport.com

To read the Fair Credit Reporting Act, go to:
www.ftc.gov/os/statutes/frca.htm

For the Federal Trade Commission’s information on consumer credit, go to:
www.ftc.gov/bcp/conline/edcams/credit/index.html