Seattle Real Estate Market 2007 YTD
Back on March 2nd, when I first posted stats for 2007, there were more buyers than sellers in most market segments. I add the Closed Sales plus the ones In Escrow and find that represents about three times the number currently For Sale. That trend is holding up to $850,000 (see graphs below) which represents 82% of the Eastside Real Estate Market and 94% of mostly non-view property in North Seattle so far this year.
I’ve run the stats again from several different angles. For those who can’t get enough graphs and stats, Click here for all graphs posted today, and early this year, for comparison purposes.
I ran the numbers to test my own thoughts. My feelings were that Eastside and North Seattle was running pretty much at the same pace, both as to Year to Date and to one another. It is why I treat them as one market service area. Either side of the 520 bridge and around the top of Lake Washington really operates as one market for me, moreso than going up to Mill Creek or down below Downtown Seattle. So it’s not “Seattle vs. Eastside” as much as it is North Seattle and Eastside vs. everything else.
My thoughts proved out as the graphs below indicate.
The many graphs on my site show the actual numbers in $200,000 increments on the Eastside, highlight the weaknesses in the higher priced markets, and provide some raw data for those of you who want to mix the stats up differently or show them in a different format than a pie chart.
It’s interesting to test my market perceptions against reality by doing stats. But honestly, it doesn’t tell me anything I don’t already know by being in the business. I do these for those of you who like “proofs”. So enjoy!!!
Note***Statistics not compiled or published by NWMLS.*** Statistics compiled and published by ARDELL - the NWMLS notation on the graph is acknowledging the source of the data, meaning closings from tax data that are not in the mls, are not included.
Posted: May 12th, 2007 under General Real Estate.
Tags: Seattle-Real-Estate-2007
About the Author: Ardell DellaLoggia
- Author's website: http://www.SearchingSeattleblog.com
- More posts by ARDELL
- Email the author
Comments
2.
Comment
from ARDELL
Time May 12, 2007 at 10:51 am
Rich,
2006 six was not “super hot”. 2005 was “super hot”. I do think we will see double digit gains this year similar to 2006, but not as strong as 2005. Even if rates come down in June as they did in 2005, I don’t think we have the inventory to boost up to 2005 levels.
My only concern is the top heavy segment of the market. It’s getting top heavier. As those people reduce their prices in order to sell their homes, it is hard to predict how that might impact the $850,000 to $1,000,000 homes. But I don’t think at this point it will have any affect on the $850,000 and less markets.
I’m watching that pretty closely though. Since it only represents 18% of Eastside and 6% of North Seattle non-view property, it shouldn’t be relevant to most people. I am however being overly critical when assisting people who are buying OVER $850,000. That is not an area where you want to overpay for a property right now.
But by and large…I see a 15% appreciation rate by end of season on average. Higher for some and lower for others. I’ll run some actual appreciation stats in September at end of season.
3.
Comment
from ARDELL
Time May 12, 2007 at 10:59 am
Wendy was apparently doing stats today as well. Not sure if her stats are condos only. Her predictions are quite different, but then so is her market. We don’t have as much pressure from new construction on resale as she does.
4.
Comment
from Robbie
Time May 12, 2007 at 11:30 am
Ardell,
I gotta teach you my fancy charting tricks one of these days… Thanks again for your market insights!
5.
Comment
from ARDELL
Time May 12, 2007 at 11:34 am
I’ve always liked the visual of pie charts. Easier for me to make comparisons at a glance.
6.
Comment
from Kevin
Time May 12, 2007 at 11:42 am
ARDELL–
I like the pie’s too but Robbie would be interested in learning more.
7.
Comment
from Kevin
Time May 12, 2007 at 11:43 am
Can I make a suggestion to RCG? I think you should have the ‘email this post’ feature. I’m sure it would make these types of posts way more ‘viral’
8.
Comment
from ARDELL
Time May 12, 2007 at 1:51 pm
188. Advertising-Statistical Information.
Members must include in all advertising and informational sheets containing statistics based on information published by NWMLS, the following statement:
“Statistics not compiled or published by NWMLS.” This statement must be clearly and distinctly set forth in large and/or bold face type.
Someone sent me this but I don’t really understand it. Can you guy’s help me out. It says “containing statistics based on information published by NWMLS”. NWMLS is the source of my data compilations, but my posts are not based on “information ‘published’ by NWMLS”.
When I compile my own stats I list NWMLS as “source”. Should I go back to anytime I every posted stats I compiled by hand and note that they were NOT compiled by NWMLS. Isn’t it obvious they were compled by me? I’m confused.
Your thoughts appreciated. I have no trouble doing it, just seems odd to me to say “I compiled these myself”. Isn’t that obvious?
9.
Comment
from Jillayne Schlicke
Time May 12, 2007 at 10:24 pm
“Statistics not compiled or published by NWMLS.”
This rule sounds like a good one for the following reasons:
1) It will keep the NWMLS from getting phone calls from people who want to access, or have questions about the same data compilations
2) It also protects NWMLS from problems if the data was compiled incorrectly.
There are probably other good reasons. The person or entity who writes the rule usually writes it to favor his or her position.
Here’s a nice example of a good use of this rule. Bob Melvy was the listing agent on my home. Scroll down to the bottom of the page.
10.
Comment
from ARDELL
Time May 12, 2007 at 10:47 pm
Seems to me if I open up saying “I ran these stats today” LOL Oh, well.
I like Bob Melvy’s full statement. But then he did use data compiled by the MLS, he just grouped it differently than they did.
I’m just moaning because in March I posted an article with all graphs, but today I posted each segment separately. I’ll go back and post the sentence at the bottom of every blog article in the category “Tracking the Market”.
Now I’m wondering if the graph clearly states it is from Forbes Magazine, or if I run my stats from the public tax records…I like to follow rules…I just don’t like so MANY of them.
I’ll remember that when an Alternative Business Model is “breaking a rule” 
Why do I feel like Robbie?
11.
Comment
from biliruben
Time May 14, 2007 at 10:21 am
Ardell - Any idea what the months of supply is for N. Seattle, $600-800K range?
Thanks,
biliruben
12.
Comment
from Ben K
Time May 14, 2007 at 11:15 am
Ardell - I normally just add “Source: NWMLS, information deemed accurate but not guaranteed.” But, it sounds like I should be adding the additional verbiage from 188. Thanks for catching that.
13.
Comment
from ARDELL
Time May 14, 2007 at 3:39 pm
Ben,
Jan caught it for me. She doesn’t host my blog, she hosts my website. But I appreciated the heads up even though I wish I could just put it in my sidebar one time.
Biliruben…be back…checking something on that.
14.
Comment
from ARDELL
Time May 14, 2007 at 4:40 pm
Biliruben,
As of right now, given how I defined N. Seattle doing a map search, there are 70 on market (not including 10 condos) 60 in escrow and119 sold YTD of which 75 sold in less than 30 days.
There is no way to do “supply” as far as I know. Our options are Active, Contingent, STI, Pending and Sold (expired, cancelled, rented ,etc.)
I can see that there are 70 “Active” and 60 “STI”+ “Pending”. But without looking at each individual listing, I cant tell which of the ones that are Active, Sti, Pending a Sold came on market in Jan, vs. Feb vs. Mar…
I can search Actives by list date, but I can’t search the other statuses by list date. I’d have to open each listing to get the list date and then I’d have to hit property history to see if it is re-listed.
I just look at 70 for sale and 60 in escrow and pretty much call that a months supply, except the sold data doesn’t support that. So instead I would add the 60 in escrow plus the 119 sold YTD and divide that by 4.5 months and say current inventory equals a two month supply. Not bad given high end on Eastside is at a 10 month supply in some price ranges.
Not a buyer’s market though, if that’s what you’re looking for. Buyer’s market doesn’t seem to include $600,000 to $700,000 anywhere nearby. You’ve got to get up toward $1.4 million to find the inventory top heavy.
15.
Comment
from Ben K
Time May 14, 2007 at 10:17 pm
biliruben - I checked Trendgraphix for Area 705 (NW Seattle) and 710 (NE Seattle), April stood at 2.0 months supply for SFH, $600-800K.
Jan - 3.8
Feb - 3.4
Mar - 1.4
Apr - 2.0
(note: based on closed sales only)
16.
Comment
from ARDELL
Time May 14, 2007 at 10:26 pm
I didn’t use 705, I did a map search. I’ll redo it in the morning. I think “in escrow” is the most significant number as it shows if sales are increasing or declining at the moment. May closings are April decisions. I don’t like the lag time.
When there are 60 in escrow vs 119 year to date, that’s a significant piece of data.
17.
Comment
from Ben K
Time May 14, 2007 at 10:40 pm
Here’s what Trendgraphix is reporting for pendings.
Jan - 3.3
Feb - 2.2
Mar - 1.5
Apr - 1.7
18.
Comment
from ARDELL
Time May 14, 2007 at 11:33 pm
61 For Sale - median DOM 28 days
6 STI median Dom 20 days
42 pending - median DOM 15 days
closed YTD 119 - median DOM 20 days.
I don’t know what your numbers mean. What does Feb 2.2 mean?
19.
Comment
from Rich
Time May 15, 2007 at 8:29 am
Ardell,
A friend of mine bought a house for 510K for investment. He got the house remodeled (cost 80K) and was trying to sell at 630K. He told me that market is not doing well, houses are sitting on the market longer and so he recently sold the house for 600K. he lost some on that. all this happend in a period of 6 months (in north seattle).
from the data anlysis perspective, price of that property went up from 400K to 500K in 6 months (in North seattle). data analyst doesn’t know, how much money the owner has put in for remodel.
after hearing this story, I’m not so sure that market is going to do well this summer. what do you think?
20.
Comment
from Rich
Time May 15, 2007 at 8:31 am
typo in my post–
“price of that property went up from 510K to 600K in 6 months”.
21.
Comment
from ARDELL
Time May 15, 2007 at 9:05 am
Rich,
I have seen many projects gone wrong all over the place.
Usually it’s about putting the wrong improvements into the wrong property.
Slab granite where they should have used granite tile.
Making a huge fancy bathroom out of one of the bedrooms, and now it’s an overpriced fancy house with not enough bedrooms.
I saw an agent buy a house up in Mill Creek in a cheap neighborhood with lots of split entry homes, and build a “Kirkland Style” new house in the middle of crappy homes. She lost money. The house may have been worth it, but not WHERE it was.
You can’t judge market weakness by flip projects. Often people see what the owner just paid for it and they just don’t want to pay a lot more for that house, regardless. Owner wants $120,000 more than he just paid for it is just sometimes a NO! regardless of what he spent. No one cares what he spent and I have never, ever yet heard someone quote what they spent truthfully.
Someone says they spent $80,000, I say where? They say “Well IF I had HIRED someone to do…blah, blah, blah. Many who say $80,000 only spent $50,000 or less. Sometimes they spent the money on zero return items.
I’ve seen someone spend tons of money tiling the whole family room. Problem was, no one wanted tile in the family room.
Just because someone put $80,000 into it doesn’t mean they can get that money back.
Let me check on a house I know has changed hands without improvements a couple of times, and I’ll give you an accurate appreciation level. Of course “North Settle” has lots of neighborhoods that appreciate at different levels and every neighborhood has certain streets that appreciate a lot more than other streets.
I don’t understand this sentence ” from the data anlysis perspective, price of that property went up from 400K to 500K in 6 months (in North seattle). data analyst doesn’t know…”
Who is “data analyst”? $400,000 to $500,000 in 6 months equals an annualized appreciation rate of 50%!! Does that make any sense to you? Doesn’t to me.
22.
Comment
from Ben K
Time May 15, 2007 at 9:07 am
Ardell - sorry…thats the inventory supply. If no new listings come on the market, the currently supply would last 2 months based on the number of solds in the prior month or 1.7 months based on pendings in the prior month (for the $600-800K price range in 705/710).
23.
Comment
from ARDELL
Time May 15, 2007 at 9:16 am
Rich,
Here’s that example I had in my head.
1999 bought for $117,500. Value of lot, as it was torn down and a new home put up which sold for $329,950 in 2000 at $160.95 per square foot. Just resold. Was listed for $585,000 in October of 06. On market for 138 days. Sold for $516,000 - $254.19 per squre foot. Quiet street. So-So neighborhood. North Seattle.
You do the math. Don’t listen to “data analyst” whoever that is. Do the math.
25.
Comment
from ARDELL
Time May 15, 2007 at 11:11 am
Rich,
Who or what is “data analyst” that said a property went from $400,000 to $500,000 in six months, and what property was that? Is that something said online that I can view?
26.
Comment
from Rich
Time May 16, 2007 at 7:09 am
not from 400K to 500K, but from 510K to 600K. data analyst means anybody who looks at appreciation of houses over time.
i agree with you that data sometimes doesn’t give the complete picture. In this case, it seems a good appreciation (by looking at the numbers) but actually it was not a good appreciation if you consider the remodeling cost.
that property is sold and since seller didn’t make anything on that, i don’t want to post the details. thanks.
27.
Comment
from ARDELL
Time May 16, 2007 at 7:15 am
So a data analyst is someone who hasn’t seen the property and is just using pure numbers, is that correct?
I didn’t expect you to post the property here, but thought you might email it to me so I could check it out and post my thougts without revealing the property address. I totally get not posting a specific address with a story. I have that problem ALL the time.
28.
Comment
from sandy
Time May 16, 2007 at 1:24 pm
Ardell: This is off topic, but posting here nevertheless. I have question on building a deck in the back yard of a home. The back yard streches 17ft from the back of the house to the property fence boundry. About 8 ft of the yard is leveled while the rest has a downward grade of 3:1. The house also includes some additional yard space on the side of the house. We have been given some options by contractors and I wanted to get your thoughts on those. Option 1) concrete patio extending 8 ft to the back with the downward grade area covered with large rocks etc to make it seem more level, wood chips instead of grass. 2) deck of size 8ft X 15ft with grass area on back side say another 8 ft X 8ft and then the size garden patch 3) build a larger deck of the entire level back yard, and use the side area of 4ft X 12 ft for a veggie patch/garden 4) lower the level of the soil by 8 inches. Some foundation will seem exposed then to lower the grade of the slope.
What do people prefer to do? I like option 3 myself, but am woried I may be in the minority.
29.
Comment
from ARDELL
Time May 16, 2007 at 1:40 pm
Sandy,
I took some pictures of my now installed lighting for you. I’ll try to get those before and after pictures up for you. I don’t have the same style as you, but will post them for what it’s worth.
To answer your question, I’ll answer from the buyer’s perspective of recent comments made to me at showings.
1) big rocks scared a woman to death. Kept picturing her son getting banged up on the rocks
2) builder used wood chips instead of grass on new construction yard. Buyer asked it chips could be replaced with sod.
3) Deck takes up almost entire yard. Buyer said he was thinking of having it cut in half.
It’s hard visualize 4, but I’m thinking 4 to create more usable space.
All deck and veggie garden makes it sound like you have no kids looking for a place to play. What are the odds the person you sell it to is never going to have kids looking for a place to play?
30.
Comment
from sandy
Time May 16, 2007 at 2:08 pm
Ardell: the pictures will be very helpful. Please do post them.
I think the reasons you point out re:rocks are very valid. True, I dont have kids now, but you bring up a good point. Are children not comfortable playing on decks? (I am clueless) Can you point me to additional options based on recent showings?
31.
Comment
from ARDELL
Time May 16, 2007 at 4:25 pm
Anything that takes up the whole yard, pool, deck, basketball court, is never a good thing. Yard sloping up is better than yard sloping down. More options for terracing. Yard sloping down is tough. It’s hard for me to visualize. Biggest concern for yard sloping down depends on the slope. Low maintenance is usually the issue at hand. If you can’t use it, people don’t want to spend a lot of time maintaining it, unlike an upward slope where you can see the plantings if you do a terraced garden.
Rule of thumb is you want enough room for a swingset with room to get in back and front of it. Can’t say I’ve ever seen anything creative on a downslope Chips tend to wash and slide down. That’s why I liked the option of reducing the slope and making it more usable. Was that an expensive option?
Inspectors like when some of the foundation is showing, especially if there is wood siding. In fact lowering the dirt around the house is common inspector suggestion.
I’ll try to get the photos up tonight.
32.
Comment
from Kess
Time May 22, 2007 at 1:31 pm
I will be relocating to Seattle end of May. I will like to buy a house that will appreciate well and that is within 30 minutes of Microsoft. My price range is around 750K. I have only visited Seattle once when I came for my job interview, however, I am a seasoned investor from Florida. Does anyone have any suggestions on where to buy in Seattle? Thanks.
1. Comment from Rich
Time May 12, 2007 at 10:41 am
Great post, Ardell. does this mean market is going to be super hot like 2006 or better than that?
I think, we are going to see a double digit gains this year as well. what do you think?