#1 Consumer Real Estate Blog July 30, 2007
I recently did an interview for Todd Carpenter of Lenderama and noted Seattle Bubble as my favorite local real estate blog to read. “…I’d have to say my favorite blog to read is Seattle Bubble, …I want to learn what the consumer’s perception is, so I can address everything at that level. Seattle Bubble has some riff-raff, but there’s more info in the comments there, than anyplace else in the Blogosphere for me.”
The quote was picked up in the Seattle Bubble Forum as a knock against The Tim ”Notice how she said there’s info in the comments. I bet The Tim and other contributers are counted among the riff-raff and guys like Finance are providing the info that she learns from”. I don’t know who “Finance” is, but you can bet I’m not trying to learn about the real estate market from Finance or The Tim or anyone at Seattle Bubble. I’m in the market every day, why would I read a blog to find out about the real estate market? Makes no sense to me. I like to see how consumer’s respond to market info, and what their fears and concerns are. Tim’s views are pinned down and his views don’t seem to change with any market indcators. Prices are always too high and buying is never OK. How many times do you have to read the same story to get that message? Reading the articles is like listening to a broken record.
So what is the Best Consumer Real Estate Blog in my opinion? It’s Manhattan Beach Confidential. Whoever writes this blog, and he maintains his anonymity very well, does his homework, blogs about the kind of specifics that agents can’t, and reports fairly, honestly and represents a concerned person vs. a person with only one gloom and doom viewpoint that must be defended at all costs.
The author contacted me as the condo at 714 Manhattan Beach Blvd noted in the most recent article and one previous article, was owned by me two owners back. The site has photos! Of houses! Interesting content! Intelligent focus and commentary! It’s the best darned Consumer Real Estate Blog I have ever seen. While agents can’t blog about other broker’s listings, the private individual can, and this MBWatcher does it well. He doesn’t play Boo-Boo to Yogi day in and day out. Who would watch the Boo-Boo show with no Yogi in it?
He misses some key points, as any layman will. 710 is a front unit with full ocean view. The building is pre-ZORP, meaning it is higher than any building can ever be built again under current zoning and height restrictions. 710 is in the back strip of townhomes, I’m pretty sure it was Larry’s unit. The best unit is the front alley unit. The worst unit is the side alley unit. There are only 8 altogher. 714 has direct access to the home from the underground garage. Some have to leave their garage and walk to the communal steps to get inside their units. If 710 is Larry’s unit, some of the value is leaving with him.
Any consumer blogger is going to view property differently than agents do, so agents do not go to real estate blogs to learn about the real estate market. We go there to see the starting point. That place where consumers may be when we meet them, so that we know how to progress from there when educating and counseling our clients, especially if those clients came from our blogs. If they read our blog, they likely read other blogs. So keeping on top of what non-industry people are filling their heads with, is part of the real estate business today.
No I don’t think The Tim is riff-raff, nor do I go to Seattle Bubble to learn about Real Estate from The Tim or Finance Guy. I’m hoping that by writing this, Seattle Bubble may branch out from the same old, same old “everyone rent-anyone who buys real estate is a sucker”, and write some articles that I might read. Manhattan Beach Confidential is a good blog for a consumer to emulate. Until then, I’ll stick to reading the comments.
Sphere: Related Content- Posted in : General Real Estate
- Author : ARDELL
Comments»
As a contributor to both Seattle Bubble and RCG, I think there is a lot we can learn at both sites. I enjoy Seattle Bubble because that is where consumers are congregating. Many commenter’s are currently looking for a home, some have already purchased, and some are existing homeowners. Sure there is riff raff at Seattle Bubble, but there is also excellent information. I wish I had more time to blog, but Lynlee and I have a family to run and a business to run, but that is where multiple contributors really help RCG and Seattle Bubble excel.
I have learned a tremendous amount at both RCG & Seattle Bubble regarding real estate. You put a bunch of people together and you’ll be the recipient of good learning. Until Lynlee and I opened a small escrow shop, I am the first to admit HOW LITTLE I understood about real estate. It became brutally clear early on that escrow & sales are completely different businesses. And I speak for both of us because of our experience in both selling as agents, buying and now escrow office owners. I still know a fraction of what there is to offer regarding real estate, and that is why I take every opportunity to learn at Seattle Bubble, RCG, Rhonda’s Blog, Jillayne’s commentary etc…
Tim,
Doesn’t look like you clicked the link to that other “bubble blog”. HUGE difference, I think I’d like your thoughts on the comparison of the two. Just a glance. I know it’s month end
I think you misunderstand my primary thesis. The statements that “Prices are always too high and buying is never OK” and “everyone rent-anyone who buys real estate is a sucker” are mischaracterizations of the point(s) I’m trying to make.
Admittedly, I don’t currently have a page that summarizes the purpose of and main arguments at Seattle Bubble. That’s something I need to work on adding. In lieu of such a resource, I’ll summarize my two primary points:
1) Buying real estate in the Seattle area is, given present circumstances, a financially risky proposition. Renting is not only cheaper, but cheaper by enough of a margin to be a better choice, financially speaking. That being said, if someone decides the positive intangibles are important enough that they want to buy a home in (or around) Seattle, and _is aware of—and comfortable with—the inherent financial risk_, I say by all means go for it.
2) The Seattle area is not immune to the woes presently afflicting housing markets in other parts of the country. Prices are stagnant and declining in many areas not because their respective local economies are failing (save for some notable exceptions such as Detroit), but because home prices were driven up far beyond a level supported by the fundamentals. To oversimplify the point: Easy credit drove prices up, and tightening credit will drag prices down. Seattle is no exception.
Tim,
It just reminds me of how I felt when people were still buying stock when the Dow tipped over3,000
I was young. Long term didn’t register.
Even so, buying stock is a pure financial choice. Buying homes is not. People don’t buy their homes to make money. It’s a nice plus. But it’s not why they buy their homes.
You never talk about houses, like Manhattan Beach Confidential does. What about the people who are much happier in their home than in a rental? Where are the factors outside just the money of it?
Most people who talk about their homes rarely talk about its monetary value. That is ALL you talk about. A little balance.
Did you at least peak at Manhattan Beach Confidential? You have to agree it’s a better read, even though he has the same mindset as you. Less redundant. More open minded.
In Manhattan Beach it is MEGA times cheaper to rent, but that is not the total picture…never was, never will be.
Check out ReMuddle.com for some zany opinions on the Seattle Flipper mania…..
When I teach real estate agents the class on new media and blogging, I always recommend that they read a variety of real estate blogs, especially seattlebubble.com so they can get a feel for what consumers want to talk about.
“It’s a great time to buy!”
“It’s a great time to sell!”
are NOT what savy, intelligent consumers want to read from Realtors and real estate agents.
What I like about The Tim’s articles is that Tim makes a statement and then backs up his opinion by taking some statistics and giving us an analysis of the data.
Ardell does the same thing when she writes about the eastside market.
Both viewpoints are helpful for real estate agents and also for consumers (homebuyers and home sellers.)
I like reading The Tim’s full articles because I am curious to see how market statistics are analyzed from him when compared to how the NWMLS or news media spins the numbers.
Ardell,
You state that you read the comments over at Seattle Bubble, yet you have apparently not yet figured out that many, many homes ARE being bought by people PRECISELY to make money (and not as a place to live), so your comments that people aren’t doing this are simply laughable. Take SeattleEric. Take those two guys featured in the PI article last week fix-n-flipping the old house in Columbia City. Take two of the buyers of the four new houses down the street from me (one just flipped, one buyer still trying). It’s happening all over the place, and it is having a decidedly negative impact on the marketplace (driving up prices beyond the level at which non-speculating potential homeowners can even dream of affording a house).
If you think that this isn’t the case, and if you think that people aren’t talking about how much their houses have appreciated amongst themselves, you haven’t stayed around the average workplace water cooler long enough. The conversation of real estate and current prices almost always comes up just about everyplace I go (for me, it was at a family reunion yesterday).
I think that Seattle Bubble is doing an excellent job of providing a counterpoint to the current NAR-promulgated “buying/selling a house makes me all warm and fuzzy inside” ad campaign.
Great post, Ardell. Since starting blogging, I’ve always gotten more from the comments than from the main course.
Another place to learn about consumer’s attitudes is to lurk in the Discussions we just added to Zillow. Even I am surprised at how vibrant these boards are - I’d bet you won’t be able to lurk for long before joining the debate and I see that The Tim has already dived in.
Some of the more juicy discussions thus far are;
Take my house off the market,
RE Commissions,
Price Predictions,
Open houses - are they worth it? and
Staged Homes
And unlike a blog, if we’re not already talking about something you want feedback on you can just start your own discussion. Enjoy!
Some comments in support for SeattleBubble:
- “Prices are always too high and buying is never OK”
Reading SeattleBubble I get the feeling that most bloggers are prospective buyers who would rather own than rent if prices were reasonable in comparison to renting and otherwise somewhat supported by fundamentals.
- “everyone rent-anyone who buys real estate is a sucker”
I think I’ve seen The Tim and others many times having commented that if you buy a house you want with traditional financing within your means without counting on apreciation it’s not neccessarily a bad thing even in the current market. And I’ve never seen a comment that buying a home is always a bad thing.
- “Most people who talk about their homes rarely talk about its monetary value. That is ALL you talk about. A little balance”
SeattleBubble is what I understand not a general real estate blog that dicsusses things like house improvements or things like that. I would guess that it’s called SeattleBubble to focus on the home prices in the Seattle area? If that is the case it seems to do a very good job of staying on topic.
Ardell,
Can you please point to posts at the Seattle Bubble where the following views are expressed: “Prices are always too high and buying is never OK”.
I’ve been reading the Seattle Bubble blog for a while and have understood the main points to be what The Tim outlined in post #3. I think your characterization is quite simply a straw man which has no relation to what is the thrust of the conversation at the Seattle Bubble. On the contrary, advice in *this* blog from you has been buy out in the boondocks if you cannot afford in the city, but buy and build equity and move up the real estate chain and of course, to quit whining that the prices are too high. In other words, buy, buy, buy. Understandable as this is an industry blog.
While there is useful information from professionals in this blog that I learn from, your post is simply confounding. If anything, there is a constant emphasis from Real Estate Industry that to rent is bad and to buy is good. Silly catch phrases like “stop throwing money on rent” are bandied about with no caveats about the rent to mortgage ratios and how it is better to rent once the ratio goes beyond a certain point.
OK, here’s are a few questions for you: Do you think there is ever a time when consumers should rent rather than buy? Do you think consumers might be better served in the Seattle are to rent and save money rather than throw their entire income on an equivalent mortgage? Please keep the emotional aspect out - I accept that means a lot for some people (and The Tim addressed that) - lets just look at the numbers. At the Seattle Bubble, there was a thread comparing equivalent rent/buy situations. Would you still recommend buying in those situations?
Um, I read a few posts in Manhattan Beach Confidential. Sorry, as a consumer on the sidelines, I see nothing special.
SS,
I think that the perception that I always say buy and the perception that people at Seattle Bubble never say buy, is equally balanced. Clearly neither of us is all that one sided in reality.
Redmonddjp,
You lost me there. You started out talking about investors and then ended with a smash at a quote regarding residential buyers. Which are we talking about?
Some people make money and some don’t. From what I’ve seen it’s been the decisions they make from beginning to end that make the difference, and not market conditions per se. I’ve heard just as many people whining about losing money on investments two years ago as I do now. And they are mostly from people who put too much money into the wrong house.
When my clients are losing money on what they purchased at time of sale, I’ll worry. So far so good in 17 years. When the market is tougher, you have to be a whole lot smarter. Closing one tomorrow where sale price is 47% more than he paid 2 1/2 years ago when I sold it to him. The rents he’s collected pretty much paid for the mortgage all that time. The small difference he earned in tax benefits.
Who was smarter? Him? Or the people who rented from him for 2 1/2 years?
The main reason I read the comments more than the articles is that the concept that a whole County moves in unison, defies logic to me. People want the security of it being “time to buy” or “time to sell”, when the reality is it depends on what it is and where it is.
Bad time to pay top dollar for a condo with an 8 foot ceiling, if they are building three new ones with 10 foot ceilings nearby. Soon the lower ceilings will become functionally obsolete, so you need to pay a lot less for them. Unless there is some compensation factor.
Boiling everything down to an excel spreadsheet to make decisions is never the way to buy real estate.
Of course the BIGGER point is that I named one blog as my favorite local blog to read, that being Seattle Bubble, in an interview. Most would think that was a good thing. Seattle Bubble turns it into a bad thing.
Anyone want to explain that one? Some people just have to find something to be angry about, don’t you think?
“Who was smarter? Him? Or the people who rented from him for 2 1/2 years?”
Wrong question. Try, “who was luckier?”
Also, for the record, I didn’t turn it into a bad thing. At least I didn’t try to, anyway. I tried to take it graciously, as a compliment.
I’m so thrilled to have become a footnote to the flipper craze, a cautionary tale, and an example of someone who ‘flamed out’. I feel like an answer to a trivia question. LOL.
I sent the Tim an authorized epilogue to my story, which he plans to post as a final epitaph to my rise and fall. Hopefully I’ll be able to finally rest in peace.
I don’t think about Real Estate much anymore (or rather, so it seems…it’s probably an average interest, but much less so than before). In comparison to the go-go days where I was consumed with it, I feel like Don Corleone tending to his tomatoes in peace, only periodically hearing about ‘the business’ from Michael.
When people ask me about the Seattle market right now, I sidestep the question. I don’t know which way it is going? Who knows? Tim maybe right and the economy will crash and therefore buying is a bad deal. Ardell’s view of the world seems rational as well, a very individualist approach where consumers in the right financial position can buy without much concern about any macro economic hits.
What I do say, is that long term, Seattle and Washington State will continue to thrive. As water becomes more valuable than gold in the Southwest, and states in the southern latitudes have more hurricanes (Southeast, Gulf Coast), and hotter temperatures (Southwest/SoCal), the Pacific Northwest will be the new Southwest.
I hope that everyone gets to own a home in his lifetime. For Ardell’s readers, this may be tomorrow. For the Tim and his readers, I hope they can one day close shop and tell each other - ‘ok, prices are low enough..let’s buy!’.
The sun is falling below the Olympics as I finish this post, and so soon will the persona of Seattle Eric disappear at last.
I’m talking about the comment on the forum that I quoted, Tim. Not you personally. No biggee.
So you hold a comment by one person against the entire site and everyone there? Last I saw “Seattle Bubble” wasn’t a person, it was a blog with a community around it, a community of individuals with their own opinions. Just like here. Go figure.
Last I saw Tim wasn’t the only writer and I just fished a nasty, lying comment from Synthetik out of moderation.
Seriously, I paid the site a compliment. Pointed out another Bubble oriented blog that I like, and still…attacks. Anger. Defensiveness. Do you think this happens with other bloggers? Can’t you have a civil conversation without everything being taken as offensive?
Tim,
Do you really think real estate is about luck and the law of averages? It takes a lot more than a price per square foot and time on your side to pick a good property.
We don’t look at excel spreadsheets for our answers. We know that in a given block one home can lose money and another gain. It’s about the pluses and minuses of each property, and when the wind isn’t with you…you have to be even more right.
Everyday people buy and sell houses. They don’t have the luxury of standing on the sidelines. They have to make wise choices in all market conditions.
Seattle Bubble works on the same dynamic as most right-wing political sites. There is a devoted team of followers who will shout down and decry anyone who offers an alternative opinion so that apparently they can get back to rehashing the exact same commentary day after day after day. Then when someone calls Tim out he plays naive and acts as if he doesn’t have an opinion and is performing some kind of public good with his site. His opinion is about as valid as the opinion of any 20-something year old that enjoys free rent and plays with Legos.
Ardell, I agree that you have taken much more abuse than you deserve. Differences in opinion should be points for discussion and debate, not personal attacks (hear that Val?). The point I tried poorly to make above was to not smear an entire community for the words of one or a few. Would you want Val’s words to be labelled as the view of the entire RCG community? I don’t think so.
And for the record, as a regular at Seattle Bubble I was surprised and honored you chose the site as your favorite blog.
I think SeattleBubble is performing a public good. I for one do not have the time to dig up and analyze and compile all the data that is made available on that site. Data that is good for me as a consumer to be informed about and that is analyzed and commented on from a consumers point of view brings a lot of weight compared to analyzes that are done by and likely to be colored by the re-industry.
Personally I think it was very honest and commendable by Ardell to admit being an avid reader of a site that often ventilates frustration with the re-industry and thereby in a way advertising the site.
I don’t think anyone is angry about that rather the opposite, I think it is the exaggerated statements on the blogs standpoints in this thread that was commented on.
LHR,
Clearly Seattle Bubble and Rain City Guide are top Seattle Sites. Why wouldn’t we read one another? I think it’s a shame that we don’t get along better than we do.
tj,
I find talking to consumers more than other agents to be very freeing. Kind of like taking my head out of my butt. Before blogging I saw the world quite differently and very agent-centric. Blogging here on RCG is very beneficial. It’s like a Kool-Aid antedote. Visiting the Bubble, even if I do mostly read the comments, has the same effect.
But when I see people just gleefully Realtor-bashing and putting words in my mouth and stereotyping me…it’s hard to stay objective.
Clearly I can’t say anything that would negatively impact my clients. Nor would anyone expect me to do that. That’s what makes sites like Seattle Bubble and Manhattan Beach Confidential a great and valuable service. I just with Seattle Bubble was more balanced and had pretty pictures
Hi Ardell,
Great post. I really enjoy your writing. By the way, I run a Real Estate Article Directory and if you have some articles for distribution, you are very welcome to post them.
Cheers,
Alex
Since real estate is a business with two main parties, the seller side and the buyer side there is bound to be some differences in the two camps. When it comes to the stereotypes as potential buyers ( renters ) as being an angry mob and potential sellers ( homeowners ) as being arrogant I think it is a result of the market conditions.
It has been a couple of strong years of a sellers market which has lead to frustration in the potential buyer camp. I think with signs of moving more towards a buyers market the table will turn to the opposite. Instead of frustrated buyers you will have frustrated sellers. Some buyers will now brag about how cheap they got a home from some foreclosure ( arrogant buyer ) and some seller will angrily lash out against anyone who they think has a finger in driving prices lower (angry seller ).
Ardell,
My comments (#7) were in response to yours (#4). Let me know if you are still lost.
And in your comment #21, you said: “Everyday people buy and sell houses. They don’t have the luxury of standing on the sidelines. They have to make wise choices in all market conditions.”
What do you mean by your second sentence? In numerous RE markets all around our country right now, that’s exactly what people are doing–standing on the sidelines.
I do agree with the last sentence–people do have to make wise choices in all market conditions, and for more and more people, that means renting right now.
“What I do say, is that long term, Seattle and Washington State will continue to thrive.”
Seattle Eric, that’s something that we agree on 100%. The Pacific Northwest is a desirable place to live and work, and after the current mess works its way through the system, Seattle will recover nicely.
Val, I’m loving the ad hominem attacks. It’s like I always say: “If you can’t argue with their logic, make fun of their hobbies!”
“What I do say, is that long term, Seattle and Washington State will continue to thrive.”
Long term is right, Seattle may recover eventually. The immigration of Californians that has fueled Seattle’s RE boom is over. The equity that fueled our market from migrating Californian’s is drying up, almost completely dried up already. Our inventory levels are approaching all time record high’s, yet, all I ever hear is that Seattle is different. Seattle is fine, look at those median prices that are increasing! It’s all about the local economy and we have Microsoft and Boeing to save us all from the 900 Trillion dollar housing bubble (PFFT). Ignorance is bliss, thats a for sure statement. If anyone has ever researched financial data for the housing market, in its ENTIRE history, every time a boom happened a bust followed. Housing prices go up as inflation does. No more no less. You will have booms and busts but one thing to remember, HOUSING IS NOT AN INVESTMENT. It’s like a really really really really bad savings account.
I’m a bit confused. You said you “noted Seattle Bubble as my favorite local real estate blog to read.” but then you say “I’m in the market every day, why would I read a blog to find out about the real estate market?”. So are you trying to say that when you said “favorite blog to read” you meant “favorite blog’s comments to read”?
Also, “I’m in the market every day, why would I read a blog to find out about the real estate market? Makes no sense to me. I like to see how consumer’s respond to market info, and what their fears and concerns are.” So you know all about the market, but don’t know about the consumers. So the consumers are somehow not part of the market? How is that possible?
Ah, never mind the first question. I guess it’s only the comments you like to read.
Ardell,
We have been down this road before. It was never about “current market conditions” (which have to suck right now), but about risk management.
With every lending institution shutting down their less-than-prime loan lines, and with the secondary markets suffering a really bad case of constipation, you gotta think the prudent risk management is not overextending and buying real estate because “it always goes up.”
Anyway…just checking in to make sure you are doing well. You know what a big hearted guy I am.
All the best,
E
Providing a “center” for RE professionals since 2006.
I’m at the Inman Conference in San Francisco until tomorrow. Sorry to write and run like that.
Possibly a little of topic, but definitly relevant to this blog. I just wanted to share a website I stumbled upon, being a for sale by owner, I listed my property with http://www.listingvue.com. This is a FREE listing service, they forward my listing to GoogleBase. I have the capability to track the amount of visitors that view my listing, I get a 5 photo slideshow, and the presentation is unlike any i’ve ever seen
It seems like a website that’s getting some headway, the inventory has picked up quite a bit since i last checked about a month ago. So just wanted to see what kind of feeback I could get on this website. http://www.listingvue.com
I actually posted nearly ten homes on there.
Awesome presentation of the property I must say
The presentation is good. But it says “We provide the most comprehensive selection of homes for sale” and yet has no properties for sale in many areas. Lacks credibility. Would be better if it said “it is our hope to some day be able to provide the most”… Don’t you think?
It feels more like Gary and Marla are somehow associated with the site since the link isn’t Gary’s property, but the site generally.
Refering to Joe’s comment about Housing being similar to a really bad savings account…How do you live in a savings account?
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