Sunday Night Stats February 24, 2008
Before I get to the regular stats, I like to post a little something of interest that demonstrates why we are looking at the stats so closely.
Home sales have been running fairly consistently at 32% fewer homes sold over the same month last year, which was down from the number of homes sold the year prior.
This week’s Stats:
King County Residential Sales
Active/For Sale - 9,127 - UP 110 - avg. price $729,463 - median price $519,993
In Escrow - 2,557 - UP 104 - avg. price $569,757 - median price $449,900
Closed YTD - 1,551 - UP 266 - avg. price $553,634 - median price $439,000
King Conty Condo Sales
Active/For Sale - 3,256 - UP 78 - avg. price $455,493 - median price $325,000
In Escrow - 882 - UP 20 - avg. price $$407,528 - median price $315,000
Closed YTD - 533 - 101 - avg. price $356,267 - median price $279,999
Inventory is still coming on at a faster pace than properties are selling, but the single family home market seems to be doing better with that than the condo market.
I noticed during Broker’s Opens this week that many townhomes on the Eastside are encroaching on the price range of some halfway decent single family homes. I think that is bad news for people asking a half a million dollars for older townhomes with deferred maintenance exteriors in less than stellar locations, from what I have seen.
I also see weakness in the condo markets on the Eastside, and that appears to be both due to fewer investors as well as owner-occupied buyers. So financing is not the only issue accounting for the 32% drop in sales.
Per mls rules I must state that these stats are compiled and posted by me, ARDELL, and not the NWMLS.
“Statistics not compiled or published by NWMLS.”
WEB 2.0 vs. WEB 1.5 and Blogwars
“Web 2.0 can be defined as “the philosophy of mutually maximizing collective intelligence and added value for each participant by formalized and dynamic information sharing and creation.” Web 1.5 is where the information is conveyed differently by the industry practitioner, but the industry practitioner doesn’t understand that .5 of the “added value” comes from the commenter who disagrees with the post or adds more info than the post itself conveys.
Many of the blogwars going around, and not just the one involving Sellsius and BHB and 4Realz, are actually based on a growing separation involving the meaning of WEB 2.0. Just as every industry and activity since the beginning of time divides into 80% vs. 20% groups, so does the meaning of WEB 2.0. 80% will grab it as a new way to make money off of it. 20% will try to “get it” and apply it properly to the betterment of the industry as a whole. Such is life and no one can change that or stop the fights over it.
It really boils down to interpretation of “added value”. Is that value monetary? Some will erroneously assume so, as they think everything is about how to make more money. No one can change that. But the principle of WEB 2.0 is about the change in the way information is presented and BY WHOM it is presented. WEB 1.0 is a commercial - a one sided mirror. WEB 2.0 is an exchange of ideas where the general public is not the “reader” only, or the one “information is conveyed TO“, but the most important part of the information process and where the “added value” comes from.
If you argue your right to control information, as the information may not be conducive to your monetary objective, then you are at WEB 1.5, not WEB 2.0. It’s as simple as that. If you still want a one way mirror where you control the information in the comments, other than pure flaming deletions and spam deletions, and not transparent glass where more value comes from the anonymous commenter than the post writer, then you don’t “get” WEB 2.0.
Of course that’s my definition and how I understand it. Perhaps a Buyer’s Perspective is likely the best example of WEB 2.0 as far as the real estate industry is concerned, available on the internet today. ALL of the lesson learned is learned by the agents, and not the potential buyer of real estate. The potential buyer of real estate is the one doing the teaching, not the agent.
RCG is one of the best examples of WEB 2.0. Not because I am more transparent than many agents. Not because Rhonda conveys tons of good lending info to consumers. Not because Jillayne presents the underbelly of what is happening out there in her inimitable style of presenting that information. RCG is the best example of WEB 2.0 because of what readers learn from Tony Chase in the COMMENTS section of the Popcorn Ceiling Removal post. It is the best example of WEB 2.0 because of what we all learn from czb, and Biliruben, and Sniglet, and Polly and Adrianna and Jack and yes even Synthetik 
to name just a few. They are WEB 2.0, not us. We cannot create WEB 2.0. We can only create an environment for WEB 2.0 to thrive in, so those commenting can create WEB 2.0 by the value added via their comments.
They, both the named and the anonymous commenters, are WEB 2.0. Not us.
Until agents and lenders and industry practitioners and vendors of services to agents, understand that “mutually maximizing collective intelligence and added value for each participant by formalized and dynamic information sharing and creation.” is NOT about what THEY SAY in the post itself, but what they learn from those commenting on what they say, in particular from those who add more to the info in the post and often those who disagree with the information in the post, there will be blogwars.
Change never happens without disruption, Rome wasn’t built in a day and rarely do more than 20% ever “get it” at all. Most will stop even trying to “get it” at the point where they find a way to make money off of it. That’s how innovative principles become “buzz” words only, because the buck stops there.
REALTOR (R) Magazine Welcomes Web 2.0
REALTOR (R) Magazine’s March issue has as it’s cover story: “Welcome to Real Estate 2.0″.
The article gives an overview of Web 2.0 and how a few innovative people in the real estate world have been on the leading edge of applying the new technology in effective ways. A few of the many well regarded real estate bloggers are mentioned including ARDELL DellaLoggia and Dustin Luther, and Rain City Guide as being one of the sites for promoting Web 2.0. Congratulations Dustin and ARDELL!
More leaders in Web 2.0 are highlighted such as St Paul Blogger Teresa Boardman of StPaulRealEstateblog.com and Matt Heaton of the Real Estate Social Networking site ActiveRain in Bellevue. Some of the others also mentioned are Frances Flynn Thorsen (Realtygram Blogger) Jeff Turner (Turner’s Perspective ) and Daniel Rothamel (Real Estate Zebra blog)
A few large companies are joining in on the conversation, Coldwell Banker with Second Life, and is also joining with Scripps Networks (who owns HGTV) with their FrontDoor.com.
Definitely exciting times in real estate with so much going on, and the Web 2.0 conversation (party!) is only just beginning!
Skinny Bitch and Jenny Craig February 23, 2008
I promised my friends over at Jenny Craig in Bellevue that I would post some of my methods for moving toward my goal weight so quickly. I’m actually at my halfway point.
When I left Inman’s Real Estate Connect in San Francisco last year, I picked up the book Skinny Bitch to read on the airplaine on the way home. Nothing says “lose some weight” like speaking on stage to over 1,000 people in the audience. There’s no way to stop people from snapping photos and posting them on the internet or podcasting presentations and putting them out on Inman TV. So losing weight became a priority before Inman’s 2008 Real Estate Connect in San Francisco for me.
What’s this have to do with Seattle and Real Estate? Lots! Truth be told, the “dirty little secret of moving to Seattle”, especially from year round warmer climate areas, is you gain weight. Just before I moved to Seattle back in 2004, Tom Leykis did a piece on the radio about his visit to Seattle and the women having the biggest butts he’d ever seen. Crude, and my butt didn’t get big, but the weather does lend itself to weight gain if you are the type that likes outdoor exercise vs. going to a gym.
When cooking, I often read five recipes for the same dish, and then make it based on a combination of them all. Same with weight loss. I integrated a bit of the Skinny Bitch principals to the Jenny Craig plan. I had been to Jenny Craig years ago after I had my three children two year’s apart, with good and lasting success until my move to Seattle. So I had no doubt that I would accomplish what I set out to do. When you are in the business of helping others achieve their goals, achieving your own goals is paramount. No room for maybe won’t.
The first week I lost 3.6 lbs and then 2.8 lbs. pretty consistently for each of the 4 other weeks. Never even a fraction of a lb. UP in that time. While I’m not a vegan, like Skinny Bitch espouses, there is very little meat in the Jenny Craig food, so that principle is somewhat covered. What I don’t do that Jenny Craig says to do and Skinny Bitch suggests, is I never eat when I am not hungry. I don’t space out the meals and my Jenny Craig friends laugh when I tell them that I pile my lunch and breakfast on top of my dinner and eat it all at once at night LOL!
My days go by so fast in real estate, that I often don’t stop to eat, though I am drinking the 64 ounces of water prescribed under the plan during the day. No one wants to drink 64 ounces of water all at once, especially before going to bed.
Moral of the story, don’t fight your natural eating patterns and don’t eat when you are not hungry. For the first 3-4 weeks I did not change my exercise activity. Some exercise, but not more than my normal. I adjusted to the 1,200 calorie per day pattern first, and that was enough to lose the initial 10 lbs or so. When the weight loss looked like it might be slowing down from the food change alone, I kicked in the exercise. I play disco music and walk around the block several times, reversing the direction each time I get back to my house. There’s a nice hill going up 1st Street and a slightly less incline coming up 2nd Street, so I go one way and then the other.
I either play The Rolling Stones Disc 2 of the Forty Licks CD set, or a walking disco tape. I’ve been doing my step exercise with Mick Jagger for years, since my Richard Simmons Sweat and Step tape got eaten. I see it is back in print while writing this post. YAY! I’m ordering that right now! I try to add a song each day (thanks Jeremy Keener for that tip) instead of counting the trips around the block. I haven’t made it through Jack, Jack, Jackie yet, which reminds me of my daughter Jackie, but it keeps me close to home in case all the water I am drinking while walking (usually 32 ounces) has an affect
Drinking the water is often the hardest part, so I did buy two things from Jenny Craig. One is their scale because I swore that the reason my weight didn’t seem to change for three years no matter what I did was the scale’s fault. I ditched the “meany scale” and bought the Body Balance Scale at Jenny Craig that records digitally in ounces, and I get weighed every morning to make sure I’m not kidding myself into thinking I’m on track if I’m not. The other is the Jenny water bottle with built in straw and water filtration system. Drinking two of those vs. throw away water bottles is better for the environment and the purple cap reminds me not to eat or drink anything that doesn’t have the Jenny Craig seal of approval.
I did take Sarah Washburn’s brother Ovid out to lunch yesterday over at the Pumphouse. But had no problem eating my Chicken Caesar salad with no dressing and a sprinkling of plain vinegar, while he downed a big burger and fries. I took one fry and put it on my plate to show that I could, but the plate went back with the salad gone and the lone french fry proudly placed in the center of the plate. When I went to the ladies room I told Ovid that if he were my friend he would hide that fry while I was away. We then removed it from its hiding place and put it on the plate as the waitress came to clear the table.
The waitress smiled, and in that smile I could see that seeing someone being steadfast in their goals, gave her a feeling that she too could achieve her goals…whatever they may be. Sometimes we stick to our goals and objectives to show others that they too…can be successful at just about anything they want to achieve. We support one another the way the ground on your property supports the structure next door. We are an interdependent society, and the ripple effect of leading by example, is an awesome and rewarding responsibility.
Friday’s Rates February 22, 2008
Conforming Rates: based on a sales price of $500,000 with a loan amount of $400,000 and minimum credit score of 680, full-doc mortgage with reserves (taxes and insurance included in the mortgage payments). Rates are priced based on a 45 day lock and are priced with 1 discount/origination point.
30 Year Fixed: 6.000% (APR 6.156%)
15 Year Fixed: 5.375% (APR 5.627%)
10/1 ARM - 5/2/5 Caps: 5.625% (APR 6.503%)
10/1 ARM Interest Only - 5/2/5/ Caps: 5.625% (6.541%)
7/1 ARM - 5/2/5 Caps: 5.125% (APR 6.551%)
FHA/VA 30 Year Fixed: 6.125% (APR 6.654%)
Jumbo (Non-Conforming Rates). Pricing based on purchase with 20% down and minimum loan amount of $417,001 with a minimum credit score of 680, full document loan with reserves and a 45 day lock.
30 Year Fixed: 6.875% (APR 7.020%)
10/1 ARM: 6.125% (APR 6.805%)
10/1 ARM Interest Only: 6.750% (APR 7.230%)
7/1 ARM Interest Only: 6.375% (APR 7.205%)
5/1 ARM: 5.500% (APR 7.036%)
Prime Rate (what HELOCs are based on): 6.000%
Rates are as of Friday, February 22, 2008 at 3:00 p.m. This is not a guarantee nor is it a commitment to interest rate. For your personal rate quote or for loan amounts over $650,000; please contact your Mortgage Professional.
Internet Marketing Seminar for Realtors in California February 21, 2008
Dustin Luther of RCG and 4realz.net has put together a series of Internet Marketing seminars for Realtors in California.
I have been to one of Dustin’s seminars and couldn’t take notes fast enough! Dustin plans to cover quality website features and design, engaging in existing social networks, building an online community with blogs, and tracking and conversion to maximize return-on-investment….all in one day.
ROI is where I receive the most questions. Dustin, agents as well as brokers are questioning how to track ROI from blogging, how to minimize agent liability, and privacy concerns regarding personal client information. Will you cover these things as well?
Seminar Dates:
Los Angeles, March 6
San Diego, March 19
Orange County, March 31
Now if I could only find an excuse to be in California next month.
The Northwest: blessed with water,mountains, settings and views. How do you value views?
How do you value views? I don’t know.
Growing up on Capitol Hill is a far cry from acreage, cows, chickens, Llamas and horses. To say my current environment is different from where I grew up is an understatement. The house I grew up in had what I thought was an excellent view looking East over the Arboretum, Madison Park, Lake Washington and the Cascades. I can recall many warm Summers climbing out of my parents bedroom window and inching up the roof on my rear to get a perfect view. Only on the roof ridge could I see Mt. Rainier and Mt. Baker, but they were there. Husky Stadium—the hollowed place my Kansas State University Football ulumnus father (played with the late Harold Robinson, the first African American player in the Big 8 at the time, circa 1952) hated with a passion I can’t describe—was also in view. I don’t know how a guy could hate the Huskies so much and get his Engineering/Architecture degree there, but I just didn’t ask questions. I crawled up on the roof really to see one thing only: The Blue Angels.
When my spouse and I started looking for a larger place for our clan, we couldn’t qualify for squat (code for beer budget with a Champagne taste). I wanted a view, she wanted acreage. Where in Ballard were we going to find that? Where in Edmonds would we find anything like that without a million dollars in my back pocket. Monopoly money didn’t count. Snohomish County is where we found the view and acreage.
Ardell has had some really nice view photos lately on this blog and ActiveRain Blog. Rhonda Porter has posted some great photos of views and water on her blog as well. It reminded me about a post I wanted to make about how to value view property. Since I’m not in the valuation business, I thought I’d ask those who are. How do you value view property?
Board votes 6-3 to landmark Ballard Denny’s building
For those who have been watching Benaroya vs. Seattle Landmarks Preservation Board were probably not surprised by the outcome of today’s vote. The Landmarks board’s 6-3 vote to designate the exterior of Ballard Denny’s a city landmark did little to signify anything except give opposition another Trojan Horse to attack future development.
My problem with this vote is not to say opposition is not free to their opinion. Instead the Seattle Landmarks Preservation board’s vote was a perfect example of putting personal feelings in front of political freedoms.
The Fifth Amendment ends saying, “…nor shall private property be taken for public use without just compensation.” In the end, this is private, not public property. The same person that wants to dictate what can and cannot happen on private property, does not want anyone to tell them what they can and cannot do to their own house. I understand development more than the average person. Because an ex-employee wanted to get back at me, he asked for one of my projects to be considered a landmark for no other reason than it was old enough to fit the criteria. So I have been through the Landmark process and have spent a large amount of money all to have the Landmark board unanimously vote NO.
Going through this process made me question my political rights. Political freedom is being free from tyranny and free to own what you want to own as long as it does not harm anyone else, or abuse their rights. This is the point where opposition becomes confused. Opposition may use the argument that development of the Ballard Dennys would harm or abuse their rights, but on what grounds? I am sure John McCullough (attorney hired by Benaroya) will appeal this decision on the simple ground that this is private property and will not harm or abuse other’s rights.
We are all giving these personal freedoms and Ken Alhadeff, the owner of Majestic Bay Theatres said it perfectly. “If you choose to designate, you must be part of the solution. And then what? What’s the next step? Who will restore it? What will it be?”
The old saying, “If You Are Not Part Of The Solution You Are Part Of The Problem” fits well here. If you are going to oppose the Ballard Dennys offer solutions. More importantly, ask yourself if looking at the old run down Denny’s was something you were proud to call your own or you are just against future development. If the later is true, it then beomes a question of why? Why should Benaroya not be allowed to develop the land the way it is legally zoned?
Safety can’t be stressed enough for agents and sellers of property….
Safety is always a concern of mine for both me, my team, and my clients. Oddly enough, agents work in a profession where we and our clients are frequently targeted for a variety of opportunistic crimes such as burglary, assault, rape, and murder. Recently, notices went out from our local MLS letting agents know that a strange man was attempting to lure female agents to vacant properties. I’m pasting in the full content of that original notice. There has been an update on the MLS site since then that actually has a photo available of this potentially dangerous person.
“February 6, 2008. NWMLS has recently received reports of potential dangerous situations regarding a man attempting to lure women agents to homes.
A man named Christopher Heath (from Vermont) is trying to get female agents out to vacant properties. Most of the properties he is interested in are vacant and secluded. He has been arranging to meet with several agents in the area (Duvall, Monroe, Kent).
Heath claims to be relocating here to work at the Fire Academy in North Bend. He claims to be a widower, retired firefighter, cash buyer searching for rural setting with room and privacy for the 2 search-and-rescue dogs he has for his job here with the Seattle Fire Department.
He originally was looking for a house priced between $400,000 and $600,000. He later changed the price to a million, saying it was going to be a cash deal and that the money would be wired from Merrill Lynch.
One agent was feeling uncomfortable with the situation and began a background check. The Fire Academy has never heard of him. He had called from a New York phone number so she did a reverse search — it was a doctor’s cell phone # — when she called the number the next day it had been cancelled.
A 2nd agent called the number she had been given in Vermont and spoke to his wife (he claimed to be a widower). She said there are about 10 different female real estate agents leaving him messages and she found many Seattle area agents on his home computer. According to his wife, he was in the middle of taking out a home equity loan on his wife’s (of 4 months) home. His wife just happened to be home and saw the appraiser measuring her home – a 30-acre horse ranch in Vermont.
Another agent arranged to meet with him today (February 6). She told him by voice mail and email that they would be meeting at her office to introduce themselves in person and to go over their tour and initial real estate paper work. She told him it was their company policy to meet new clients at their office, introduce them to their office manager and to make a copy of their driver’s license. She has not heard from him since.
His wife believes he is now in New York heading to Washington.
The situation has been reported to the police.
Please be careful! If this man contacts you, contact your local authority.”
Making this seem even more important to bring to public attention was news that RE/MAX agents received yesterday of a murdered colleague in Canada. The same type of tactic used by this guy noted above was used to lure a 24-year old agent to a vacant home where she was then stabbed to death. Purportedly, she had expressed concerns about going out to this viewing for a variety of reasons based on the calls she received asking for the showing. I wish she’d listened to her gut and not gone but we can’t change what happened now, but I can certainly put out a warning to others in hopes that they’ll escape a similar fate in the future.
When it comes to sellers, I also speak strongly about safety measures. Just because a sign is in your front yard doesn’t mean you need to open the door to just anyone because they ask. Follow all the same security procedures you would if the house wasn’t on the market. If someone comes to the door, ask them to set up an appointment with their agent, or your own agent so that there is a layer of qualifying put in place. If you happen to be home and an agent comes to your door, to make sure they really are an agent make sure they first check in with the keybox. Only agents have the products available to them to open these boxes. The key boxes are geared specifically to capture electronic data so that the people going in and out of your home can be monitored, plus it allows for follow up and feedback, also necessary for the agent selling your home to do their job most effectively. This came up recently when a client had stayed home with a sick child. A bunch of agents came over and went through the house without logging in to the keybox. I told her that in the future she should have every single agent log in before allowing them into her home.
Having an open house potentially puts your belongings at risk so if you have anything of value - whether it’s monetary or personal in nature - put it away. Medicines in your cabinet? Put them where they can’t be picked up by snooping people or those there to see if they can pick up their “fix”. Sometimes it can seem entirely benign to have an open house but what you’re doing is inviting complete strangers in, who haven’t been qualified by anyone specific much less a lender and/or agent, who will come traipsing through your home. Even if people are asked to sign in they will oftentimes put down false information because they want to remain anonymous. I’m not saying “don’t do it” at all, but rather think about safety measures that can keep you, your family, and your belongings safe throughout the sale.
Are Rates Shooting to the Moon? February 20, 2008
Don’t worry…I understand that Helicopter Ben and the US Military have shot down a spy satellite to help blow inflation out of the sky. Mortgage rates should improve tomorrow morning and I will report back on Friday with my weekly rates. I snapped this photo of the lunar eclipse in front of our home a few moments ago. 
(I just...
