Killer Views and Dog Poop - Short Sale August 18, 2008
Given prices in the Seattle Area have not dropped to the extent of most of the Country, people wonder why there are some deep discount short sales here. Mostly those that have a deep discount are in worse shape than when the current owner purchased them.
Remodels gone bad…very, very bad. If you know the house below, please don’t mention where it is or the address in the comments. I can’t “advertise” another agent’s listing, but wanted to give you an idea of what a house looks like that will likely sell for $200,000 -$300,000 less than what is currently owed on it.
Often the work being done is substandard, in this case likely because of all of the beer being consumed while doing the work.
Often you will see a lot of new materials, like the travertine above, but partial and poor installation. I think there were more broken pieces of travertine strewn about than there were full tiles laid.
Still, the view considerations suggest it may be a worthwhile project for someone, especially an owner occupant, if it sells close enough to lot value.
But rarely does anyone but an investor want the house with Killer Views and piles of dog poop.
Broken Window Seals August 14, 2008
If anyone has had broken window seals fixed and knows someone in the Redmond/Bellevue/Kirkland area who can fix them, can you please post the info in the comments section of this post, or email me direct?
Thanks!
Seattle Real Estate Market - King County August 12, 2008
To know if the market is getting better or worse, we have to expect something of the market. That is the only way to know if the market is doing better or worse “than expected”. Active markets anticipate. If a company’s earnings are down to the same degree as anticipated and expected, there will be no change in prices. So we have to expect something to happen, and this post is all about what I expect to happen in the King County - Seattle Area Real Estate Market.
To keep saying the market is down from peak for 3-5 years is both boring and of no value, and only fun ad nauseum for whiners. I call that NSS (No Sh_t Sherlock) meaning no kidding the market is down from peak; that news is a year old now. What’s next?
To those who hate it when an agent sticks their neck out and makes predictions, I say…go away then or get used to it or get over it. Agents are paid good money to answer the question “Where is the real estate market going?” If we only got paid to open doors and say “do you like this house”, we’d be paid $15 an hour. That’s the going rate for a good real estate assistant.
Sellers need to know if selling next year is better than selling this year. Sellers need to know when they get an offer today, if that offer is or isn’t likely the best offer they are going to see in their timeframe. Buyers need to know if they can sell in 1-3 years without taking a loss. People need agents to have an opinion about the future, both the near term future and the foreseeable future, They can’t simply rely on personal experience and say “well I’ve never seen that happen” because the future is not about the recent past.
The graphs below show what I expect the market to do as to volume, which will assist us in determining true Absorption Rate and knowing whether the market is getting better or worse (than expected).
I’m calling Absorption Rate as of now, 10 months. Current inventory is 12,403 and I expect it to take 10 months from today for 12,403 Residential properties to sell in King County. That also means it will be a Buyer’s Market until and unless we see inventory drop from 12,403 to 7,500. That can happen by property selling, or sellers deciding to rent or withdraw from the marketplace, at a higher rate than properties are coming on market. I expect that to start happening on September 1 and continue through year end. Whether or not prices will continue to decrease into next year and beyond will depend on how close we can get to 7,500 properties on market by December 31st.
The two graphs below are a double check system. On a month to month basis we would expect to see variance. Sometimes August sales are higher than September, and sometimes September sales are higher than August. So the double check is for the Quarterly sales stats to fall into the prescribed ranges within a reasonable variance.
I took the year notations off the monthly stats, as I don’t expect these numbers to change unless there are changes in the mortgage market that create additional buyers. That could be lower interest rates and.or looser lending standards. Until then, we have to learn to live with what we can most likely expect to happen.
Sunday Night Stats - More signs of stability August 11, 2008
King County Home Sales for the last 8 years, the only time July volume was higher than June homes sold was in 2003. That 2008 is lower than 2007 is old news. The good news is that the relationship of sales month to month is following a predictable pattern and a normal relationship.King County Home Prices
King County Home Prices June and July
Same as to prices. Even in the boom years, the relationship of prices from June to July was pretty much the same as it is now. Prices are running slightly above where they were this time of year in 2006.
Do you know where to find info on septic systems and your responsibilities? August 7, 2008
A client of mine is planning on selling a property soon and he’s trying to get his proverbial “ducks in a row” before going on market. He asked me about what his responsibilities are with regard to his septic system and he also wanted to know if he needed to do an inspection or pumping of the system prior to selling. If you are not familiar with this process either as a buyer or seller, here is a great website with details about septic systems for you to learn about. It’s specific to King County so if you live outside this area you’ll want to see if your own county has a similar website with info for you.
If you just want to learn more about septic systems (also called onsite sewage systems) and how to use them properly and care for them you can read through this information, also from King County.
And the FED…does nothing. August 5, 2008
The markets anticipated the FOMC to leave the Fed Funds rate alone at 2% and that’s just what they did. The markets are reacting accordingly by not swinging drastically either way. The DOW is enjoying triple digit gains while oil has been under $120. What does this mean to mortgage interest rates?
As you know, the FOMC does not directly control mortgage interest rates as mortgage interest rates are based on bonds–mortgage backed securities (MBS). Traders will react to what the FOMC does and does not do and THIS will impact mortgage interest rates.
The FOMC press release states:
“Economic activity expanded in the second quarter, partly reflecting growth in consumer spending and exports”. I’m wondering how much of the growth in consumer spending is from the economic stimulus checks?
This statement is quickly followed with: “…labor markets have softened further and financial markets remain under considerable stress. Tight credit conditions, the ongoing housing contraction, and elevated energy prices are likely to weigh on economic growth over the next few quarters”.
Bonds react negatively to inflation, I’m anticipating that we will see mortgage rates continue to trend higher. Here’s a bit from the FOMC regarding the “i-word”:
“Inflation has been high, spurred by the earlier increases in the prices of energy and some other commodities, and some indicators of inflation expectations have been elevated. The Committee expects inflation to moderate later this year and next year, but the inflation outlook remains highly uncertain.”
You can read today’s FOMC statement here.
PS: As the Prime Rate is tied to the Fed Funds Rate, your HELOC is unchanged for now.
Remember Dustin’s Project Blogger Apprentice?
Million Dollar Listing
Back in April of 2007, Dustin chose Madison as his Project Blogger Apprentice. My Apprentice, Kevin Tomlinson of South Beach Luxury Condo Fame (also very hot), clued me in today on Madison’s Cover debut on PlayGirl Magazine.
Madison is also one of the stars of Million Dollar Listing
Madison Hildebrand Million Dollar Listing
Your Mama of The Real Estalker reported a few posts ago about one of the other stars of the show being released on $100,000 bail. If you are into “hard core real estate porn”, I highly recommend The Real Estalker. It’s a fast paced great read, and one of Kevin’s Favorite Blogs.
Someone wanted to do a “Where are the Apprentices?” a year later, but I don’t think anyone would have guessed “On the Cover of Playgirl Magazine” 
The new (2nd) season of Million Dollar Agent airs Tuesday Night, August 5th on Bravo.
Sunday Night Stats August 4, 2008
It’s too early in the month to post the end of July stats. We’ll do that next week as many agents will post their month end closings during this week. Seems to me that August closings may keep pace with July and July will be down from June as to price, and maybe volume too. Two of my listings are pending inspection for August closings, and one has been on market for quite sometime. Another is at least a bridesmaid…waiting to hear if it made it to bide. If there’s no offer, it was at least a close second So it seems to me that some people who have been looking and looking, are starting to move in and make offers.
King County Condos
2004 - 1Q - 1,694 - $188, 2Q 2,636 - $199, 3Q 2,540 - $196, 4Q 2,176 - $195
2005 - 1Q - 2,066 - $198, 2Q 2,925 - $209, 3Q 2,769 - $226, 4Q 2,266 - $224
2006 - 1Q - 1,956 - $242, 2Q 2.748 - $252, 3Q 2,737 - $269, 4Q 2,217 - $278
2007 - 1Q - 2,042 - $295, 2Q 2,862 - $302, 3Q 2,676 - $311, 4Q 1,618 - $294
2008 - 1Q - 1,258 - $299, 2Q 1,508 - $287
Changes in condo stats for this week
Active Listings: 4,030 - DOWN 70 - median price $319,950 - MPPSF asking $310 - DOM 65
In Escrow: 793 - DOWN 39 - median asking price $289,950 - MPPSF asking $291 - DOM - 50
Sold YTD : 3,060 - UP 134 - median list price $289,950 - median sold price $285,000 - MPPSF - $289 DOM 49
Residential King county
2004 - 1Q 5,650 - $152, 2Q 9,237 - $160, 3Q 8.737 - $163, 4Q 7,467 - $165
2005 - 1Q 6,402 - $173, 2Q 9,093 - $185, 3Q 9,131 - $192, 4Q 7,301 - $195
2006 - 1Q 5,596 - $201, 2Q 8,248 - $214, 3Q 7,771 - $216, 4Q 6,204 - $217
2007 - 1Q 5,304 - $222, 2Q 7,393 - $230, 3Q 7,944 - $229, 4Q 4,301 - $221
2008 - 1Q 3,640 - $219, 2Q 4,641 - $220
Changes in residential stats for this week
In Escrow: 2,559 - DOWN 125- median asking price $419,950 - DOM 48 - MPPSF $204.8
SOLD YTD: 9737 - UP 420 - median asking $449,950 - median sold price $440,000- DOM 49 - MPPSF $217
Actively for sale 12,307 - DOWN 210 - MPPSF <$800,000 is $220 - MPPSF >$800,000 is $332
Stats not compiled or published by NWMLS. (Required disclosure)
The Housing Rescue Bill July 30, 2008
Today President Bush signed a housing “rescue” bill HR 3221. I’m really still absorbing all of this (I think it’s taking me a bit longer after my trip to Inman Connect). Here are a few quick pointers:
The FHA risked base mortgage insurance pricing (which I’m in favor of) that was to be effective last week is now postponed until September 30, 2009. FHA can now save some borrowers in trouble with their mortgage if their existing lender will forgive the underlying debt to 85% 90% of the current value of the home. Gee…risked based MIP might be handy in these cases.
Also with FHA, Seller paid down payment assistance programs are will be gone and the minimum down payment for an FHA insured loan will be 3.5% (which is a very small increase) beginning October 1, 2008.
Jumbo FHA and Jumbo Conforming loan limits will be reduced from the current 125% of median home value to 115% of the median home value beginning January 1, 2009. As I mentioned, your days of a loan amount of $567,500 are numbered. The new conforming/FHA jumbo limit may be closer to $520,000.
First time homebuyers (someone who has not had interested in a property for the past 3 years) are eligible to receive a tax credit…however, it’s really an interest free loan to be paid back over 15 years or from the proceeds when the home is sold (which ever comes first). This is available only for homes purchased on or after April 9, 2008 and before July 1, 2009. Income restrictions do apply. For more information, check out this website.
Last but not least (and I’m sure I’m missing stuff) Fannie and Freddie have a new regulator: The Federal Finance Housing Agency aka FHFA. This from James B. Lockhart:
“Today President Bush signed the ‘Housing and Economic Recovery Act of 2008.’ I thank President Bush and Secretary Paulson for their leadership in making government sponsored enterprise (GSE) regulatory reform a reality.
The Act creates a world-class, empowered regulator, the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA), with all the authorities necessary to oversee vital components of our country’s secondary mortgage markets — Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and the Federal Home Loan Banks — at a very challenging time. As Director of the new agency I look forward to working with the combined Federal Housing Finance Board (FHFB), Office of Federal Housing Enterprise (OFHEO) and Housing and Urban Development (HUD) GSE Mission teams and with other regulators to ensure the safety and soundness of the 14 housing related GSEs and the stability of the nation’s housing finance system.
For more than two years as Director of OFHEO I have worked to help create FHFA so that this new GSE regulator has far greater authorities than its predecessors. As Director of FHFA, I commit that we will use these authorities to ensure that the housing GSEs provide stability and liquidity to the mortgage market, support affordable housing and operate safely and soundly.”
Too much to write about in detail for one post…just wanted to throw you some bits.
Sunday Night Stats - Where’s the market heading? July 27, 2008
Tonight I want to get an idea of where the market is heading as we go into July, as to prices. I’m going to bulk together some Zip Codes that I personally follow, to have a large enough area to be meaningful, and yet zero in on local at the same time.
I’m getting the data as I am typing, so I have no idea how the numbers will fall. We’ll find out together.
First Group: 98033, 98052, 98004, 98005, 98007 and 98008 on a combined basis.
Residential:
In January of 2008: median Asking Price of homes sold was $652,450 and the median Sold Price of those same homes was $625,000. Median days on market of those sold homes was 68 days and 27.66% sold in 30 days or less. Median Price Per Square Foot = $267.66
Lets jump to May 2008 and see where the market went by that time from the beginning of the year. Median Asking Price $643,500. Median Sold Price $630,000. Median Days on Market 41 and 38.28% sold in 30 days or less. Median Price Per Square Foot = $272.72
June 2008: median Asking Price $710,000. median sold price $690,000. Median days on market 61 and 33.58% sold in 30 days or less. Median Price Per Square Foot = $277.10
July month to date: Median Asking Price $650,000. median sold price $639,000. Median days on market 50 and 30.92% sold in 30 days or less. Median Price Per Square Foot = $253.57. Median type of house was a 4 bedroom 2 1/2 bath 2,520 sf home.
Some pretty large homes are in escrow with the median square footage of all homes in escrow at 2,660 and a medain price per square foot of $262.20. Of course that $262.20 is asking price and not sold price, so prices are trending down from July 1 to present.
Let’s compare that to June of 2007: Median Asking Price $699,000. Median Sold Price $685,000. Median days on market 21 and 61.09% of homes sold in 30 days or less. Median Price Per Square Foot = $292.73. Median type of house was a 4 bedroom 2 1/2 bath 2,340 sf home.
Interesting July stats so far. The size of home is larger, the price is lower. More home for less money as I said last week. Very Interesting. But the numbers are so different from May and June. Fewer houses sold quickly. This data is worth tracking week to week, especially as we head into fall.
Second Group Seattle 98115 and 98103 on a combined basis excluding townhomes (townhomes on Eastside automatically not included for the most part, as on The Eastside townhomes are condos and not residential). Trying to keep this apples to apples.
In January of 2008: median Asking Price of homes sold was $540,000 and the median Sold Price of those same homes was $522,500 Median days on market of those sold homes was 51 days and 29.57% sold in 30 days or less. Median Price Per Square Foot = $253.64
Lets jump to May 2008 and see where the market went by that time from the beginning of the year. Median Asking Price $595,000. Median Sold Price $580,000. Median Days on Market 20 and 61.97% sold in 30 days or less. Median Price Per Square Foot = $277.51
June 2008: median Asking Price $550,000. median sold price $546,000. Median days on market 29 and 54,02% sold in 30 days or less. Median Price Per Square Foot = $265.04
July month to date: Median Asking Price $567,450. median sold price $553,450. Median days on market 23 and 56.90% sold in 30 days or less. Median Price Per Square Foot = $261.67. Median type of house was a 3 bedroom 1 3/4 bath 2,115 sf home.
Let’s compare that to June of 2007: Median Asking Price $567,000. Median Sold Price $569,500. Median days on market 13 and 75.93% of homes sold in 30 days or less. Median Price Per Square Foot = $273.79. Median type of house was a 3 bedroom 1 3/4 bath 2,080 sf home.
The median asking price of all pending sales is $535,000 and the median square footage is 2,085. Looks like better “deals” are in escrow as we speak at $256.59 MPPSF as to ASKING prices with that number to be pared down further as to sold prices.
Stats not compiled or published by NWMLS. (Required disclosure)
Unless someone asks for the regular weekly King County Stats, I’ll post them over on my blog tomorrow. It’s been a long, back-breaking day for me. I was more interested in finding out where the market was heading, than posting overall King County since last Sunday. But I will post them on my blog tomorrow for the benefit of those who have been charting them on Excel Spreadsheets.
Goodnight!
*****************
You can find the regular weekly stats here.
« newer posts | older posts »
