Sunday Night Stats on Monday Morning May 5, 2008
Did you ever work so hard in a week, that you just needed to lay down for 20 minutes after dinner and didn’t wake up until the next morning!? Sure you did. It happens to all of us. Well, that’s what happened to me last night after my Open House in Bryant and after inputting a new listing in Redmond. Just took a nap and never woke up until 6:00 a.m this morning.
In this business the days sometimes just keep running together one after the other and you forget when you last had a day off, or a haircut, or your nails done. You just keep working day after day until the job is done, and the time frame just keeps switching from this “right now” to the next “right now”.
There is no “have a nice weekend” in real estate. There is no “what’s your schedule like” in real estate. On any given day the phone rings and sets a chain of events into motion that has no end until the work is done. And when your clients have small children, you really roll up your sleeves and pitch in until the house is ready for market. I have 4 sets of clients with children, all getting their houses ready for market, and 2 of the 4 moving to new houses nearby. The work is back-breaking, but very satisfying when the job is done and the home is photo ready and Open House ready and Broker’s Open ready, and then you do the photos and the Open Houses and the Broker’s Opens, and it just keeps going until the house is sold.
Everyone wants a list of what an agent does. Truth is we do whatever it takes to achieve the objective. Everyone working all at the same time, owners of the homes and agents alike, all working toward the common goal of getting everything just so and on market.
Whether it’s a home built in 1910 in Bryant:
Or a newer townhome in Redmond:
Perfection is the expectation of buyers. So you just keep working till you get it as perfect as you can. And the poor Moms who live there with their small children, have the undaunting task of trying to keep it that way day after day. Getting the kids ready for school and leaving the house in perfect order for showings, is no easy feat.
So this Mother’s Day I ask that you all give honor to the Mom’s with homes on market…and the Mom’s like me who turn into everyone’s Mom when helping them get the job done.
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And now for Sunday Night Stats on Monday Morning. I won’t be doing the April month end stats until next week, as there will be many month end closings posted during this week. So let’s just do the normal weekly stuff.
I expect if I’m this busy getting properties on market, two on and at least three to go over the next few weeks, that every agent is busy prepping homes to get them on market. So inventory should be rising even more in the next 30 days.
King County Residential:
For Sale: 9,372 at a million or less - DOM 53 - MPPSF $225.58 and 1,591 over $1M - DOM 68 - MPPSF $371 Total Residential King County homes on market this morning 10,963. That is 135 more than last week, after netting out those that went into escrow from those that came on market this week.
In Escrow: 2,750 - DOM 45 - MPPSF $212, that’s 81 less than last week due to month end closings with MPPSF dropping from $214 to $212. That reflects a drop in asking prices, not sold prices. Expectation is the sold prices of those 2,750 will be less than the $212 MPPSF asking prices. Though some did sell for over asking price with multiple offers, the median will likely be more like $210 or so.
Closed YTD: 5,109. That’s 463 more than last week with DOM of 51 days and MPPSF of $220 for the year to date which is up a buck for closed sales.
Given the median days on market for In Escrow is going down, the price issue of down to $212 MPPSF for those in escrow, is likely due to increased competition and homes coming on market being more realistically priced to sell. At least for the ones that are actually selling and going into escrow.
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King County Condos:
For Sale: 3,784 - that’s 10 more on a net basis than last week. DOM 57 - MPPSF $323 (about the same)
In Escrow: 900 - that’s 46 less than last week due to month end closings - DOM up from 43 to 48 - MPPSF up from $303 to $305. Remember those are asking prices, not sold prices.
Sold YTD: 1,675 up 158 over last week - DOM 48 - MPPSF $288 - that is DOWN from $290 last week and EQUAL to the MPPSF of 2007 all months combined. Given most of last year was strong, condos just now reaching MPPSF of all of last year is a pretty strong statistic for condos. You would think all of this year would be equal to the last 5 months of 2007. But they are still running high relative to 2007 compared to the single family home market, but starting to dip on a YOY basis, which is to be expected.
Amazing how strong the condo market is. I suspect new construction and condo conversions are giving resale condos a run for their money and strong competition. That is keeping the MPPSF up, though for resale…not necessarily so.
That’s it for Stats this week. When I do month end stats for end of April YOY next week, we’ll break down some of the areas like “within 2 miles of Microsoft” and certain Zip Codes from weak ones to strong ones. So if you are hoping to see a break down of a given area, it’s time to get your requests in for next week.
One of our agents listed a property at $350,000 in Tacoma three weeks ago and has had NOT ONE showing since it was listed. My listing in Bryant listed at $529,950 had 6 showings in the first two days + more than 20 people at the first Open House yesterday. So there is a lot of difference in activity from one area to the next.
Getting the property ready for market, and good photos, have become critically important. No more stick the sign up “as-is” and wait for offer…
Sphere: Related ContentSunday Night Stats - King County April 28, 2008
When I started Sunday Night Stats, I didn’t think this through as to what would happen when I ran into volumes that exceeded 10,000 units. I can’t run stats for volumes over 10,000. 9,193 condos sold in 2007. Inventory would have to exceed last year’s total sales for us to run into difficulty, and I don’t expect that to happen. I also don’t expect sales to exceed last year’s, so let’s start with the condos tonight and add some relevant breakdowns.
Remember that “in escrow” prices are asking prices. It’s easy to see why the properties in escrow are selling and why the ones for sale are not. There’s a $20 per square foot difference overall.
King County Condos
For Sale - 3,774 - UP 68 - DOM 56 - median price $328,000 - MPPSF $323
1 bedroom condo - 1,056 - DOM 56 - median price $294,970 - MPPSF - $419
2 bedroom condo - 1,988 - DOM 58 - median price $340,000 - MPPSF - $312
In Escrow - 946 - UP 75 - DOM 43 - median price $299,950 - MPPSF $303
1 bedroom condo - 274 - DOM 31 - median price $269,500 - MPPSF - $394
2 bedroom condo - 472 - DOM 45 - median price $305,000 - MPPSF - $285
Sold YTD - 1,517 -UP 120 - DOM 49 - median price $284,000 - MPPSF - $290
1 bedroom condo - 418 - DOM 43 - median price $247,250 - MPPSF - $362
In 2007 - 2,676 - DOM 24 - median price $263,000 - MPPSF $386
2 bedroom condo - 787 - DOM 50 - median price $299,000 - MPPSF - $289
In 2007 - 4,742 - DOM 29 - median price $298,000 - MPPSF - $288
King County Residential
To avoid any segment exceeding 10,000 for the rest of the year, I am breaking these down into three age categories, and then combining them at the end and carrying out the data out for any segment with 10,000 or less units.
Built before 1970:
For Sale 3,624 - DOM 50 - median price $450,000 - MPPSF $248
In Escrow 1,097 - DOM 36 - median price $410,000 - MPPSF $234
Sold YTD 1,831 - DOM 43 - median price $410,000 - MPPSF $235
In 2007 - 9,651 - DOM 26 - median price $429,000 - MPPSF 246.
NOTE: The median asking price of the sold properties was $419,950. So if the properties in escrow have the same relationship of sold price to asking price, expect to see prices down more than the $246 per square foot of 2007 to the $235 of closed year to date. The properties on market are asking slightly higher than the price per square foot of last year in this age range, but are not getting it.
Built from 1971 to 1999:
For Sale 3,146 - DOM 53 - median price $535,000 - MPPSF $228
In Escrow 688 - DOM 51 - median price $439,000 - MPPSF $209
Sold YTD 1,207 - DOM - 56 - median price $427,000 - MPPSF $206
In 2007 - 6,778 - DOM 37 - median price $460,850 - MPPSF $220
Again, properties for sale are asking more than the $220 PSF that they sold for last year and getting less. The asking price of properties sold year to date was $438,000. So unlike the prior to 1970 category, the properties in escrow may end up at the same median price per square foot as the YTD closed sales.
Built 2000 or later:
For Sale 4,068 - DOM 66 - median price $594,950 - MPPSF $217
In Escrow 1,046 - DOM 55 - median price $479,000 - MPPSF $197
Sold YTD - 1,608 - DOM 59 - median price $475,043 - MPPSF $206
In 2007 - 6,956 - DOM 49 - median price $500,000 - MPPSF $207
The asking prices of the properties closed YTD was $484,995. So those properties in escrow look pretty dismal both as to price AND price per square foot.
Total Residential Properties:
For Sale 10,828 - UP 209
In Escrow 2,831 - UP 191 - DOM 45 - median price $445,550 - MPPSF $214
Closed YTD 4,646 - UP 316 - DOM 52 - median price $438,163 - MPPSF $219
Median asking price of closed properties was $448,250. 1,627 of those sold in 30 days at 99% of asking price.
Sphere: Related ContentSeattle Real Estate - 2008 April 17, 2008
Let’s take out the Crystal Ball and a mountain of stats and make some predictions for 2008.
Here are my predictions for residential (not condo) sales in 2008:
16,500 will sell by year end.
3,583 sold in the first quarter (fact not prediction)
4,455 will sell in the second quarter
4,950 will sell in the third quarter
3,927 will sell in the last quarter
Sales of residential property peaked as to volume in the 1st quarter of 2006. We have been in a “volume down - prices up” cycle from the 1st quarter of 2006 through most of the 3rd quarter of 2007.
A little history regarding volume:
2001 - 22,425, 2002 - 23,921, 2003 - 28,804, 2004 - 31,091, 2005 - 32,821, 2006 - 27,816, 2007 - 23,375, 2008 prediction 16,500.
Volume started dropping in the 1st quarter of 2006, but the condo market picked up that drop to some extent until the 3rd quarter of 2007. So prices continued up as volume declined.
A little history regarding prices:
2001 - $252,000 to $269,000, 2002 - $269,000 to $277,000, 2003 - $277,000 to $300,000, 2004 - $300,000 to $328,000, 2005 - 328,000 to $389,000, 2006 - $389,000 to $439,000
last quarter of 2006 - $439,000
first quarter of 2007 - $445,000
second quarter of 2007 - $470,000
third quarter of 2007 - $469,000
fourth quarter of 2007 - $439,000
first quarter of 2008 - $435,000 (same as 3rd quarter of 2006)
Prices continued up through the 2nd quarter of 2007, continued up in the first part of the 3rd quarter and headed down in the tail end of the 3rd quarter ending at pretty flat.
My price predictions are:
$429,000 for the 2nd quarter of 2008
$400,000 for the 4th quarter of 2008
You guess the 3rd quarter.
So volume peaked in the first quarter of 2006 and prices peaked during the third quarter of 2007.
Will be interesting to see where actual compares to my predictions as we head into the 2nd quarter of 2008. If the darned sun doesn’t come out and stay out, 2nd quarter may fall short.
I think if we hit around 16,500 by year end, we will have bottomed out as to volume, but not price. I think prices will be down 15% from July of 2007 to end of December 2008. Volume will level out and prices will continue to fall.
I predict that agents will think I’ve been too tough on these market predictions and the general public will think I’ve been too soft and 5% will say I caused it all to happen 
“Statistics not compiled or published by NWMLS.”
Sphere: Related ContentSunday Night Stats + 1st Quarter YOY April 13, 2008
Surprise on the breakdown of First Quarter YOY. While condo volume is down 41% compared to 1Q-2007, condo prices are holding steady and may even be going up. Single family homes are down 33% as to volume, but as Case Schiller reported and I have tonight verified, single family home prices are back to August 06 levels and tipping downward.
Condo sales for the 1st quarter were only 1,210 compared to 2,042 in the first quarter of 07, but price per square foot is at $297 compared to $295 in 2007 and $242 in 2006. Plus the properties in escrow are showing $306 per square foot. While that may decrease when we see the sold vs. asking prices, so far sold prices have been pretty close to asking, so the likelihood is that those in escrow will close higher than the $297 price per square foot of 1Q-07.
So for condos, volume way down but prices up…again.
Single Family homes sales for the 1st Quarter are showing at 3,570 vs. 5,304 in 1Q-2007. Prices are down to $219 per square foot (exactly where they were 8/06) down from $222 in 1Q-2007 and up from 201 in 1Q-2006. Properties in escrow are at $214 per square foot as to asking prices. So we will likely see a continued downward trend as to price in single family homes in the next few weeks of closings.
In 1Q-2008, 33 out of 100 homes sold at 98.8% of asking price within 30 days. 20% were on market for over 120 days.
In 1Q-2007, 43 out of 100 homes sold at 100.48% of asking price within 30 days. 15% were on market for over 120 days
In 1Q-2006, 54 out of 100 homes sold at 101% of asking price within 30 days. Only 8% were on market for over 120 days.
Now for tonight’s stats:
I’m switiching out to median price per square foot (MPPSF) vs. median price. I’m also showing DOM as they look like they are coming down, so we want to track that.
King County Residential Sales
Active/For Sale - 10,426- UP 246 -DOM 53 - MPPSF Under $2M - $230 (Over $2M MPPSF $546)
In Escrow - 2,708 - UP 134 - DOM 47 - MPPSF $214
Closed YTD - 4,004- UP 285 - DOM 53 - MPPSF $219
King Conty Condo Sales
Active/For Sale - 3,684 - UP 94 - DOM 54 - MPPSF $320
In Escrow - 876 - UP 30 - DOM 37 - MPPSF $306
Closed YTD - 1,305 - UP 71 - DOM 51 - MPPSF $295
“Statistics not compiled or published by NWMLS.”
Sphere: Related ContentSeattle Real Estate - Sunday Night Stats March 30, 2008
Before I get to tonight’s stats, let’s talk a little bit about some myths out there. Many are saying that the volume of sales is down by 30% this year because the low end can’t finance, as if only the lowest of price ranges is reacting to the mortgage markets. Not so. In fact the results are pretty startling across the board in that they are virtually identical in every price range!
Number of sales is down 30% equally in every price segment.
In Jan & Feb of 2007 when there were 4,226 properties sold, 46% of them were priced between $200,000 and $400,000
In Jan & Feb of 2008 the number of sales dropped from 4,226 to 2,919, but still 46% of them were priced between $200,000 and $400,000.
Virtually the same for all price segments. $400,000 to $600,000 represents 28.5% of sales in both years. To see all price segments and compare the percentages to 2005 and 2006 and to see all of the underlying data too boring to post on RCG go here.
Up to this point more people were buying at higher prices each year. This “flatlining” of percentage of purchases in each price category is another way of saying that prices are flat.
When will we know that prices are down? When more people can and do buy more houses at lower prices and those percentages start increasing on the low side and decreasing on the high side, you will know that prices have been affected by more than just a little. Conversely if these percentages stay the same or start moving up again, then volume is down and prices are not affected. Personally I don’t see how volume can continue to reduce by 30% YOY without that affecting prices more than it has to date.
I will be waiting a week or so before reporting for the full first quarter in a like comparison. It takes a good week or even two weeks for agents to post their March month end sales. But as soon as we’re pretty sure all of the sales are posted, the all telling 1st Quarter 2008 numbers will be very interesting. Generally the 1st quarter accounts for 20% to 22% of the year’s sales. So we should be able to make some assumptions about how we expect the year to play out once we have all of the 1st quarter data.
OK…on to Sunday Night Stats and our regular programming.
King County Residential Sales
Active/For Sale -10,064 - UP 285 - median price $528,000- up $3,000
In Escrow - 2,664 - DOWN 48 - median price $447,725 - UP $3,725
Closed YTD - 3,273- UP 390 - median price $435,000 - DOWN $2,500
King Conty Condo Sales
Active/For Sale - 3,518 - UP 83 - median price $324,950 - no change
In Escrow - 863 - DOWN 39 - median price $299,900 - DOWN $50 (asking prices)
Closed YTD - 1,097 - UP 139 - median price $285,000 - no change
“Statistics not compiled or published by NWMLS.”
Sphere: Related ContentSunday Night Stats - King County March 23, 2008
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King County Residential Sales
Active/For Sale - 9,779- UP 148 - median price $525,000- no change
In Escrow - 2,712- UP 11 - median price $444,000 - DOWN $4,000
Closed YTD - 2,883 - UP 332 - median price $437,500 - UP $1,500
King Conty Condo Sales
Active/For Sale - 3,435 - DOWN 6 - median price $324,950 - no change
In Escrow - 902 - UP 5 - median price $299,950 - no change (asking prices)
Closed YTD - 958- UP 111- median price $285,000 - no change
Allowing for late postings I went back to March 15th to track volume changes YOY.
Single family home closings are down 33% and condo closings are down 40%.
“Statistics not compiled or published by NWMLS.”
Sphere: Related ContentSunday Night Stats March 16, 2008
King County Residential Sales
Active/For Sale - 9631- UP 195 - median price $525,000- UP $950
In Escrow - 2701- UP 73 - median price $449,000 - no change
Closed YTD - 2551- UP 271 - median price $436,000 - UP $1,000
King Conty Condo Sales
Active/For Sale - 3,441 - UP 75 - median price $324,950 - UP 100
In Escrow - 897 - UP 29 - median price $299,950- DOWN $14,500 (asking prices)
Closed YTD - 847 - UP 85 - median price $285,000 - UP $5,000
Median SFH Home Prices of Property Currently In Escrow
$644,950 Bellevue
$484,000 Bothell (King County)
$654,500 Issaquah
$508,950 Kenmore
$684,000 Kirkland
$685,940 Redmond
$367,475 Shoreline
For Seattle, SFH includes townhomes
$479,950 98103
$459,000 98107
$577,000 98115
$475,500 98117
“Statistics not compiled or published by NWMLS.”
Sphere: Related ContentSunday Night Stats - King County March 9, 2008
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King County Residential Sales
Active/For Sale - 9,436 - UP 260 - median price $524,050 - UP $450
In Escrow - 2,628 - UP 44 - median price $449,000 - Down $950 (asking prices)
Closed YTD - 2,280 - UP 338 - median price $435,000 - UP $462
King Conty Condo Sales
Active/For Sale - 3,366 - UP 105 - median price $324,850 - DOWN $4,050
In Escrow - 868 - no change - median price $314,450 - UP $5,950 (asking prices)
Closed YTD - 762 - UP 104 - median price $280,000 - UP $1,050
Updated closings for February 2008
Adding late postings
Condos # of sales 394 for Feb. 2008 vs. 635 in Feb. 2007 - DOWN 38%
Residential # of sales 1,171 for Feb. 2008 vs. 1,640 in Feb. 2007 - DOWN 28.5%
Residential priced under $400,000
2,902 on market vs. 3,183 sold in the last six months
Residential priced under $600,000
5,753 on market vs. 5,798 sold in the last six months
Residential priced under $800,000
7,332 on market vs. 6,812 sold in the last six months
Residential priced under $1,000,000
8,090 on market vs. 7,231 sold in the last six months
Residential priced under $2,000,000
9,059 for sale vs. 7,636 sold in the last six months
Condos priced under $300,000
1,512 for sale vs. 1,658 sold in the last six months
Condos priced under $500,000
2,697 on market vs. 2,677 sold in the last six months
Condos priced under $800,000
3,086 on market vs 2,890 sold in the last six months
Condos priced under $1.5 million
3,277 on market vs. 2,929 sold in the last six months
“Statistics not compiled or published by NWMLS.”
Sphere: Related ContentSunday Night Stats & YOY Results March 2, 2008
I’m actually on the edge of my seat awaiting the results of the end of month King County stats for February. I love posting in real-time as I see the data for the first time as I am posting it here.
Remember, not all agents post their closings in a timely manner, so there will be some updating in the next few days. In fact I will be showing January YOY as well to pick up any late entries there also.
I’ll do January first for 2006, 2007 and 2008 in graph form. I’m off to get the numbers and post them in the graph data field.
The median home price for January of 2008 for single family residences is up 9% comparing 2008 with 2006 and up 1% from January of 2007.
Total Number of Sales is down 35.6% compared to January of 2006 and down 31.8% compared to January of 2007.
Days on market increased from 33 days in 2006 to 53 days in 2007 to 61 days in 2008. So those reduced number of homes sold are taking longer to sell for slightly better prices.
Now let’s look at the condo sales for January YOY.
Prices up around 21% compared to 2006 and holding steady compared to 2007. Remember, these are the numbers for the month of January compared Year over Year (YOY)
34% fewer condos sold in January of 2008 compared to January of 2006. 37% fewer condos sold in January of 2008 compared to January of 2007. This repeats what I have been saying, that last year some people who didn’t buy single family homes, bought condos instead. But this year sales are down even further for condos than for single family homes, greatly due to financing issues introduced in the latter part of 2007.
Days on market for condos increased from 27 days in 2006 to 38 days in 2007 to 61 days in 2008. That’s a pretty dramatic increase in days on market and coincidentally identical in 2008 to the days on market for single family homes.
OK…let’s all hold our breath for the February reports. It’s only March 2nd, so there WILL be some late additions which I will post next Sunday night. But we also had an extra day, it being a leap year.
February Prices were up 11.5% from 2006 to 2007 and are holding to a hair under for 2008 compared to 2007.
Days on market have increased from 24 to 43 to 57 56. Again taking much longer to sell at these prices.
I’m going to guess that with late arrivals posting in the next week that the volume continues to be down at least the 32% or so that we saw last month, and not the 38% or so showing in that graph. But still, not seeing an improvement for sure. We’ll catch up on late postings next week, but the trend appears to be continuing as to volume.
**UPDATE** Late postings as of March 6 coming in better than expected for residential sales at 29% drop compared to February of 2007. Graph has been modified to reflect most recent stats.
I did the number of sales first on the condos, so I’m going to post it that way. All I can say is I sure hope there are a LOT of late postings out there, because volume appears to be down as much as 47% as of right now. Let’s guess that to be not more than 40% just so we can all sleep tonight, and hope for the best. I’ll repost this next week in a corrected version after picking up late postings.
**UPDATE** as of March 6 with late postings, # of condo sales down 39% compared with Feb 2007. Graph has been edited to reflect late postings. Median days on market 43, no change in median sale price.
I had to go back and double check that one.
The slight downward affect on prices would suggest that the volume, while likely off for late postings is going to end up significantly down, and that is beginning to have a negative impact on prices.
On to the weekly Sunday Night Stats.
King County Residential Sales
Active/For Sale - 9,176 - UP 49 - median price $524,500 - UP $4,507
In Escrow - 2,584 - UP 27 - median price $449,950 - UP $50 (these are asking prices)
Closed YTD - 1,942 - UP 391 - median price $434,538 - DOWN $4,462
King Conty Condo Sales
Active/For Sale - 3,261 - UP 5 - median price $328,900 - UP $3,900
In Escrow - 868 - DOWN 14 - median price $308,500 - DOWN $6,500 (asking prices)
Closed YTD - 658 - UP 125 - median price $278,950 - DOWN $1,049
I feel like the 11 o’clock news tonight. Prices starting to trend downward and volume off significantly.
These stats are compiled and posted by ARDELL and NOT the NWMLS. This is a required disclaimer under current rules of membership.
During the week people should be posting more closings as of February month end and I will adjust the stats via strikeouts and corrections throughout the week.
“Statistics not compiled or published by NWMLS.”
Sphere: Related ContentSunday Night Stats February 24, 2008
Before I get to the regular stats, I like to post a little something of interest that demonstrates why we are looking at the stats so closely.
Home sales have been running fairly consistently at 32% fewer homes sold over the same month last year, which was down from the number of homes sold the year prior.
This week’s Stats:
King County Residential Sales
Active/For Sale - 9,127 - UP 110 - avg. price $729,463 - median price $519,993
In Escrow - 2,557 - UP 104 - avg. price $569,757 - median price $449,900
Closed YTD - 1,551 - UP 266 - avg. price $553,634 - median price $439,000
King Conty Condo Sales
Active/For Sale - 3,256 - UP 78 - avg. price $455,493 - median price $325,000
In Escrow - 882 - UP 20 - avg. price $$407,528 - median price $315,000
Closed YTD - 533 - 101 - avg. price $356,267 - median price $279,999
Inventory is still coming on at a faster pace than properties are selling, but the single family home market seems to be doing better with that than the condo market.
I noticed during Broker’s Opens this week that many townhomes on the Eastside are encroaching on the price range of some halfway decent single family homes. I think that is bad news for people asking a half a million dollars for older townhomes with deferred maintenance exteriors in less than stellar locations, from what I have seen.
I also see weakness in the condo markets on the Eastside, and that appears to be both due to fewer investors as well as owner-occupied buyers. So financing is not the only issue accounting for the 32% drop in sales.
Per mls rules I must state that these stats are compiled and posted by me, ARDELL, and not the NWMLS.
“Statistics not compiled or published by NWMLS.”
Sphere: Related Contentolder posts »
