Sunday Night Stats - King County February 17, 2008
Before I calculate the stats for this week, I’d like to take a minute to explain why I am being this tedious. Week to week stats calculate momentum of the market. Will new inventory grow faster than properties are going into escrow? So far only one week showed a slight decline in inventory, with more properties going into escrow than came on market.
While I fully understand that one week does not a market make, here’s the skinny. Take a look at the graphs below. It’s a long way before we can look at the first quarter of 2008, so let’s look at the three month period beginning 11/ 1 and ending 1/31.
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Number of residential sales are down by 44% from the same period in 04-05. Condos are down 31% both from last year to this year and 04-05 compared to this year. Residential is down 32% compared to the same period last year.
It would appear that the condo market was picking up where the residential market was losing, in previous years. That would reflect buyers being squeezed out of the Single Family Home market and opting for condos, due to affordability.
The just over 30% decline this year appears to be more reflective of the number of buyers who are squeezed out by changes in the mortgage industry, or fear of the unknown.
This week’s stats:
King County - Residential
For sale - 9,017- UP 138
In Escrow - 2,453 - UP 152
Closed year to date - 1,285 - UP 214
King County - Condo Market
For sale - 3,178 - UP 96
In escrow - 862 - UP 34
Closed year to date - 432 - UP 70
As you can see, condos are coming on market at a higher rate than they are selling, moreso than single family residences. Since more single family home owners wait until Spring than condo owners, this is not surprising.
I’m sure we will see stories coming out that the market is “picking up”. However February being better than January doesn’t tell the story of this year’s decline of about 30% compared to last year. While it is possible that the mortgage industry changes did not squeeze out a full 30% of buyers, many are being more conservative, even if the lenders don’t require them to be.
“Statistics not compiled or published by NWMLS.”
Sphere: Related ContentSunday Night Stats - King County February 10, 2008
I’ve modified the format slightly to include month end stats and will continue that each week. For those just tuning in to Sunday Night Stats for King County, I post these every Sunday night and the UP or DOWN is as compared to last Sunday night’s data.
The data changes based on late postings. A sale closed in January can sometimes show up in February as January. So I’m updating the January closings each week as well, both here and in last Sunday night’s post. I’ve had some emails from people who are pulling these and putting them into spreadsheets. When we get past the 1st quarter, I’ll post a graph YOY by month and quarter.
King County - Residential
For sale - 8,879 - UP 241
In Escrow - 2301 - UP 147
Closed year to date - 1071 - UP 183
Sold/Closed in January - 902
King County - Condo Market
For sale - 3,082 - UP 99
In escrow - 828- UP 33
Closed year to date - 362 - UP 69
Sold/Closed in January -311
I’ll head over to last week’s post and update the January Sold data and percentage change YOY.
“Statistics not compiled or published by NWMLS.”
Sphere: Related ContentHold On To Your Hats! Sunday Night Stats February 3, 2008
Whoa Baby! To say these numbers are interesting is an understatement. I better put that MLS required disclaimer that this data was hand calculated by ARDELL using the MLS system, but not posted or compiled by NWMLS.
We’ll start with the January data Year Over Year (YOY). Remember a few more sales will trickle in since we are so early in February, and some agents don’t post immediately after the sale.
But as of tonight, the Jan. month end closings (drumroll please):
**UPDATE FOR LATE POSTINGS OF JANUARY CLOSINGS as of 2/7/08 and again on 2/10/08):
King County SFH sales for Jan. 2008 came in at 861 895 902 vs. 1,357 in 2007. A 36% drop.34%
King County Condo sales are down about 43% 39% from 511 in 2007 to 293306311.
Remember that for every city that is performing better than those percentages, like Bellevue and Redmond whose SFH sales are only down about 15%, there are other cities and areas whose performance was worse than the overall King County numbers.
People ask why I always calculate Kirkland, Bellevue and Redmond statistics. I expect these areas to outperform King County as a whole. Bellevue and Redmond did. Kirkland did not. Living close to Microsoft is still the criteria that gives homeowners the edge in certain parts of Bellevue and Redmond, though not all of those two cities.
For instance if Factoria performed the same as King County overall, then close to Microsoft is virtually unscathed. I didn’t break that down, but I expect that is the case given Bellevue and Redmond’s overall performance of down 15% or so. Next week when we see if there are any more month end closings posted, I’ll break that down to see where really close to Microsoft is coming in.
I’m also tracking which homes are selling and which aren’t. By visiting the properties in person and picking the ones that should sell, we can tell if there is any impact at all. If the properties that should sell do sell, then that area ( close to Microsoft) is not affected.
Now for the weekly stats. I’ll keep this running with closings on a YTD basis throughout the year and compare the YOY at the end of each month.
Inventory being “down” means that the sales are happening faster than new listings are coming on market this week. So a slight, very slight, reduction in inventory for the first time this year. Sales are keeping pace with, and exceeding, new listings on market by a small margin.
King County - Residential
For sale - 8,638 - DOWN 22
In Escrow - 2,154 - UP 90
Closed year to date - 888 - UP 280
King County - Condo Market
For sale - 2,983 - down 26
In escrow - 795- down 28
Closed year to date - 293 - UP 89
Seems a bit odd that In Escrow is down also, but I expect that is because of month end closings. We’ll see how that shakes out next week and in the weeks to come.
I can’t help but think of the commenter whose monicker is “bored”. Don’t know how anyone can be bored with this housing market.
“Statistics not compiled or published by NWMLS.”
Sphere: Related ContentSunday Night Stats - King County January 27, 2008
King County - Residential
For sale - 8,680 - UP 172
In Escrow - 2,064 - UP 158
Closed month to date - 608 - UP 169
King County - Condo Market
For sale - 3,009 - UP 80
In escrow - 823 - UP 25 - 2.6% of those are contingent contracts
Closed month to date - 204 - UP 60
Next week I’ll have to post both end of month and Sunday night stats plus YOY closings for the month of January.
Single family home market keeping pretty good pace with those closing and going into escrow vs. coming on market. Condos not so good. Hard to believe that with over 3,000 on market, only 18 went into escrow two weeks ago and 25 this past week. If the condos don’t move, the single family market will see the consequences of that come Spring and Summer.
“Statistics not compiled or published by NWMLS.”
Sphere: Related ContentSunday Night Stats January 20, 2008
So far it looks like sellers have a 50% chance of selling vs. last year. I’ll keep tabs on that as we go. You were twice as likely to sell your house last year as this year, if you put it on market. For those of you who think it’s a new year and if it didn’t sell last year it’s time to raise the price…I’d rethink that. Hopefully low interest rates will improve the stats moving forward. But I wouldn’t count on the improvement being more than a 66.6% chance of selling. We’re not talking about selling at the price you want. We’re talking about selling at all. Not a good time to be stubborn or overly optimistic. You have until 4/1/08 to get real with your pricing, or possibly be back on market in 2009. Stop pricing off what other people are asking. Stick close to the comps this year. No more than 5% over the comps is a good rule of thumb. And don’t skimp on condition. Condition will be the MOST important factor in 2008, second to not pricing more than 5% over the comps.
King County - Residential
For sale - 8,508 - UP 132
In Escrow - 1,906 - UP 97 - 6.5% of those are contingent contracts
Closed month to date - 439 - UP 203
King County - Condo Market
For sale - 2,929 - UP 59
In escrow - 798 - UP 18 - 2.6% of those are contingent contracts
Closed month to date - 144 - UP 75
UP means over last Sunday’s data. Sales of single family homes kept pretty good pace against homes coming on market this week. But still running at about half the pace of this time last year. Let’s assume 1/3 of the buyer pool is gone and that this year’s sales will be 2/3rds of last year in total number of properties sold. That’s my prediction based on what we’re seeing so far.
“Statistics not compiled or published by NWMLS.”
Sphere: Related ContentSunday Night Stats - King County January 14, 2008
An update to the Property Stats for King County from last week:
Residential - Single Family
For sale - 8376 - UP 279
In escrow - 1809 - UP 27
Closed in Janaury so far - 236 -NEW CATEGORY
Condo
For Sale - 2,870 - UP 125
In escrow - 780 - UP 47
Closed in Jan so far - 69 - NEW CATEGORY
Apologies Sandy, no Bellevue Stats today. I’ve decided to do them in map grid first, and visit some of the new on markets for commentary on how the new is comparing to old listings, and to track if the new listings are selling at a higher rate than current inventory.
Broker’s Opens are on Thursday. I’ll report afterward.
“Statistics not compiled or published by NWMLS.”
Sphere: Related ContentSunday Night Stats January 6, 2008
I know how much I enjoy being able to check RCG for mortgage rates every Friday, thanks to Rhonda. I’m going to try to do the same for King County Stats on Sunday nights. Each week I will also highlight a different City or Seattle Zip Code over on my blog. Tonight I did Kirkland Stats.
I don’t have any commentary for King County Stats tonight. But there’s plenty of commentary on the Kirkland Stats. There’s less than a three month supply of inventory for property priced at or below the median price sold in 2007. There’s a very strong buyer’s market in the high end of $1M or more for condos and $1.5M or more for single family homes.
I’ll try to post the stats here every Friday night for King County, but until we get a couple of months of sales, or the full first quarter of 2008, commentary would simply be conjecture. I don’t expect the number of homes sold in 2008 to be dramatically different in the first half of 2008, as they were in the last half of 2007.
I expect that brown slice of December 2007 closings to change a bit each week as agents post late. There were even a few late postings for November and October since last week. I’ll try to update and keep the data as accurate as possible. As always, and by mls rule, I must disclose that I, ARDELL compiled these stats using MLS as a source only. The data is not compiled by NWMLS.
“Statistics not compiled or published by NWMLS.”
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